MicAtCyp,
MicAtCyp wrote:I think the main problem so far is the instistence to "improve" the Anan Plan. In my opinion the Anan Plan is not improvable. Whatever changes we ask in our favour will have to be counterbalanced with changes of the other side, so we will end up to the same denominator.
I am aware of this problem, certainly if negotiations begin with such a mindset they will lead nowhere. Having said that, there are some ways in which the plan can be improved for the TCs, which in no way affect GC interests - for instance, economic convergence, the economic health of the TCCS - so I wouldn't agree that any give and take will inevitably lead to the same denominator.
But overall, I think we should escape from the mentality "this change is in my favour and that change is in your favour". Instead, we should be seeking "Such changes as will make the plan acceptable to both sides" (note I didn't say "mutually acceptable changes", which is a non-starter). To achieve this mentality change, I believe the UN and the two negotiating teams need to involve the public more closely in the negotiations, and recall that after all it is the wider public that the solution plan should please.
MicAtCyp wrote:I don't blame the TCs for this. I totally blame our side for sticking to a BBF= bizonal-bicommunal Federation(?) for almost 30 years simply to aquire political benefits over the intrangidence of Denktash. This system had a totally different application when it was accepted by Makarios in 1977 than what it has today. It's time we say it clearly. We DON'T want such a system because it pre-assumes lessening of our very human rights on top of all other concessions we make whereas it requires no concession from the other side other than some return of what the 1974 Invasion gave them (from what was ours on the first place).
But how can we say it, when we are still against the wall for the "offspring" of this system i.e the Anan plan? The cost will be tremendous. Can we add it to the existing one? No!
In my opinion our side will try to negotiate a new solution that presumably will be a BBF, but at the same time stick to the EU aquis. On the other hand the TC side will start screaming they want things contrary to the EU aquis because otherwise the BBF cannot apply. From there on there are are two options:a)Either the TC side will accept -in which case we will have a solution just called BBF but not be so in reality, or b)Papadopoulos will kill the BBF on that very moment and accuse the other side for insisting on "fascism". or c) The TC side will propose return to 1960 constitution plus autonomy (the best option according to me) or d) start returning land fast to later have grounds for partition.
I also find some problems with the BBF model, especially the fact that each person will end up having three identities (Cypriot, Constituent State, Ethnic) in order to make it work. Turkcyp has made a noble effort to cleanse the plan from the element of ethnic distinctions (by proposing primary and secondary constituent state citizenship), and I like his ideas, but the problem of having three identities remains. Also the problem of having three governments in such a small island remains, no matter how the Annan Plan or any BBF plan is improved. These are inelegancies that we can not escape from, if we remain within the BBF model. However, I don't agree that property rights (what you are most concerned about) are necessarily "unimprovable" - The average TC is much more willing to compromise on the issue of property rights than on any other aspect of the plan (security, settlers, power sharing), and besides, the concern that the TCCS will collapse or be economically dominated if a GC farmer owns ten donums of land off Trikomo, is fictitious anyway. Capital ownership is not to be equated with land ownership, because not all land has the same capital value. The real question is, who will own the factories and the hotels and the office space and the shopping malls in the TCCS, and most of that can remain under TC control without compromising the average GC's property rights.
The real question is: Can we live with the inherent weaknesses of the BBF model (not necessarily the Annan Plan interpretation of the BBF model), or is partition better than BBF? And if a Unitary state is better than both BBF and partition, is it achieveable, or will we end up with partition in our struggle to achieve the Unitary State (according to the old saying "Opoios thelei ta polla hanei kai ta liga")?
I think a fundamental aspect of having a unitary state is trust. The TCs would never agree to fully share their lives with us in the context of a unitary state unless they felt they could trust us, but if you conduct a poll now amongst TCs and ask them if they trust GCs, you would probably get less than 1% yes. So, if we use our "EU muscle" in order to enforce a Unitary State solution, do you think this will increase the trust of TCs towards us or decrease it? They will probably choose at that point to remain separate from us, even if it means international isolation for another thirty years and the end of Turkey's EU ambitions. It's not just us who know how to spit a "No" in everyone's face when a "Yes" would be nothing less than surrender ...
In my opinion, a Unitary State can only be achieved after a transitional period of 15 to 20 years living together in the context of a BBF. What perhaps we can insist on in negotiations, is that the constitution of the BBF should be seen as transitional, and that 15 or 20 years later a Constitutional Assembly should be called in order to inquire whther we are ready to evolve the state into a Unitary system of governance.
MicAtCyp wrote:PS. I just noticed Alex you suggested complete free trade including direct flights from Tymbou/Ercan (!!!) on exchange of Famagusta for creating a good climate for talks.
Sorry but I don't agree with that. It is like exchanging whatever the TCs want (trade and recognition) for a very small part of what we want. Be sure the TCs will talk very relaxed then, but I am not sure we will be equally relaxed. Careful Alex don't throw all your aces at once...
Actually I suggested RoC authorised direct trade only, in response to the return of Varosha - flights from Ercan were Turkcyp's suggestion.
I don't think direct trade is the only thing that TCs want, the EU carrot would still remain a strong motive for a solution. In the mean time, RoC authorised direct trade could be helpful, if it means that TC trust towards us grows as a result. How can we negotiate a solution with the TCs, if they believe that everyone except Turkey (GCs, EU) is out to get them? Won't they insist on strong Turkish guarantees, if negotiating in such a climate?