I laughed like a drain when I read:
‘That’s why we call it a forecast’
By Elias Hazou
THE ISLAND’S Meteorological Service was yesterday forced to defend itself after its forecast for a rainy Tuesday turned out to be wrong.
The controversy was compounded after a number of websites on the internet had earlier got it right by predicting no rains and strong winds for the region around Cyprus. This apparently cast doubts on the credibility of the government service.
But Loizos Stephanou, senior officer at the Met, yesterday shot down the idea that they had made a gaffe.
Speaking on CyBC, Stephanou said the heavens’ failure to open up on Tuesday was due to “unforeseen factors.”
Minute changes in the atmosphere, which are unpredictable, can affect the whole weather pattern, he added.
“These things happen all the time… besides, that’s why we call it a forecast,” remarked Stephanou.
Asked to comment on the aforementioned websites and their weather predictions, the civil servant called them “charlatans.
“These are the same sort of people who appear on television with trinkets and making predictions based on the colour of the sky or whatnot. These quacks make us a laughing stock abroad,” noted Stephanou.
Some of the website reports were based in Cyprus.
“From what I know, these websites spoke of strong winds in the Cyprus area for the next 10 days. OK, which days and what time? Can they give us this information? It’s sheer luck…this time they got it right.”
Stephanou said the Met used the same weather models as in Britain, the United States and Germany.
“Weather prediction is based on physical laws that are rendered into mathematical models.
Our computers process trillions of calculations per second. How can you compare this to the charlatans?”
Copyright © Cyprus Mail 2007
If the Met Service makes the same mistake as I did, then I can't be a charlatan, can I?
The complex software I use for my forecasts is American, BTW, and it uses much of the same data as the Met Service, so that explains my mistake being the same as theirs!
The interpretation of the data differs slightly from the Met Service, though, because it is essentially for the Troodos massif foothills region and not for the cities. However, Cyprus is not that big!
We have a 50-50 chance of rain some time tonight and maybe some small showers over the weekend -- perhaps!!!.
My forecasts are normally updated at 0930, 1330 and 1830 daily from data culled ½ hour earlier (odd ones may be missed for technical reasons) and may be seen in English at http://www.cypenv.org/wxfcast/forecast.php and in Greek at http://www.cypenv.org/wxfcast/forecast-el.php
