Cyprus-Forum.com

[brother]

pantelis is like that, he posts a link and you have to guess his point and then imagine his response.
Most forum users do not even acknowledge it anymore.

[turkcyp]

So, turkcyp... If Turkey has been a full member of EU, today; what would have changed in its stance concerning the solution?

Would she accept "majority rule"?

NO.

Would she accept return of all refugees and relocation of all TCs?

NO.

Would she accept to withdraw all of her troops from Cyprus

NO.

Would she accept repatriation of all settlers?

NO.

The problem insan is that Turkey is not a current member of EU and wants to be one. And as it stands right now it is obvious that she can not be one without giving in to all the maximalist demands of GCs. This is why GC side is not very keen on having the talks start because they know that if they start the talks there will be pressure to settle Cyprus problem as soon as possible. But a solution brokered between TCs and GCs will never give them their majority rule demands, and T.Pap knows them. That is why he rather deals with Turkey along her accession course to EU. The first step is this de-facto recognition. The next step will be de-jure recognition. After that it will be removal of troops, and this will go and on like this, as we as TCs are simply patched to current GC administration, under the name of RoC, and in the meantime loosing all of our 1960 rights.

One thing is sure though. Turkey will never remove all the troops from Cyprus, before she guarantees her EU membership. Because any government doing that and after that loosing EU membership as well, can not stand the backlash in domestic politics. Because right now the mood in Turkish society is “OK, we have saved these TC asses and have been feeding them for the last 30 years. Now it is time to take care of us. IF it means letting 200k to their own fate with GCs, to bring more economic prosperity to Turkey in EU, then so be it”. But the would never forgive any government that would sacrifice TCs without making sure that they are in EU.

This bring us to our dilemma. The only time Cyprus can be solved with the existing political momentum would be 15 years when and IF we start talking about Turkish accession. After all the accession talks are over, and after commission says Turkey is ready, and it comes down to approval of Turkey by the existing 28 members (then it would be 28 ). At that point it will be tricky for Cyprus because they know that they should be the only one that are willing to veto Turkey. If let’s say Austria or France vetoes Turkey before hand, then the whole game for them collapses. (So in reality Cyprus during this next 15 years should work very hard for Turkey in EU, to get her accepted to EU, otherwise her EU card would be meaningless, because it is not usable anyway. Weird. HUH.)

OF course these all require that EU would exits at its current form in 15 years, and Turkey is not developed enough so that EU membership is still more beneficiary then letting TCs to their demise, etc. etc.

Well if all the above variable are still in place, then we as TCs would be screwed in 15 years. So in that environment where we will be forced to give up so much more than Annan Plan, which in itself was worse that 1960 agreement in terms of constitutional rights and where the only positive aspect was some sort hybrid temporary bi-zonality. Quite honestly I rather turn back to 1960 agreements then this Annan 6 or whatever it is called. If it is not an improvement over 1960 agreements why would any society (us or GCs) would accept it. (A legal partition will never be acceptable to GCs)

So what I think we should do is start suing RoC, in its own courts first, then in EU courts, so secure our own rights from 1960 constitution. EU courts will be the hardest part to convince, because they may refuse to accept the case as it may be deemed as infringement of a state’s internal constitution, even though that constitution is the primary law in EU, because RoC got in the EU with that constitution. I do not think ECHR would take our cases because RoC will simply replace our rights from 1960 constitution with the equal rights of GCs in the human level so we will simply be a minority within the RoC, with no equality of communities that we have in 1960.

As I have said our best bet is EU high courts and convince them what RoC is doing, changing constitution without our approval (which I assume everybody accepts that under current legal structure is impossible and illegal) is against the basic principle of EU, which is the “Rule of law”, so that they would infringe into RoC internal workings, an secure our rights from 1960 constitution.

I have never believed one day, neither the majority of TCs, that it is the intention of RoC to enforce the 1960 constitution if the partition ends. As we all know it is all talk. When they talk about TCs participating in RoC, they mean we participate RoC in its current form which is completely different from 1960 constitution. And if GCs are left alone, will never enforce 1960 constitution, somebody like EU will have to force them to do that.

Anyway, I hope you are not bored with my long and tedious post.

Take care,

p.s. I realize that what you are doing in another topic, is what GCs have been doing to us for years, “never admitting their sides faults”. It is true that a commission set by Council of Europe, had issued a repost in late 70’s saying there were human rights abuses performed by Turkish army during 1974. You can claim that it was a political decision (which I am not claiming) but you can not say that there is report, done by Council of Europe.

[metecyp]

As we all know it is all talk. When they talk about TCs participating in RoC, they mean we participate RoC in its current form which is completely different from 1960 constitution. And if GCs are left alone, will never enforce 1960 constitution, somebody like EU will have to force them to do that.

I agree with you on this. It's the same mentality of "18% cannot have so many privileges" or "majority rules" from 1960s and that's what worries me and that's why I don't think that the TC community as a whole wants to live in a GC majority in a "European solution" and that's why federation and self-rule in their state is essential for TCs.

[Saint Jimmy]

Anyway, I hope you are not bored with my long and tedious post.

En contraire, my friend, this is a very reasonable line of thinking. Very, very interesting.

This bring us to our dilemma. The only time Cyprus can be solved with the existing political momentum would be 15 years when and IF we start talking about Turkish accession. After all the accession talks are over, and after commission says Turkey is ready, and it comes down to approval of Turkey by the existing 28 members (then it would be 28 ). At that point it will be tricky for Cyprus because they know that they should be the only one that are willing to veto Turkey. If let’s say Austria or France vetoes Turkey before hand, then the whole game for them collapses. (So in reality Cyprus during this next 15 years should work very hard for Turkey in EU, to get her accepted to EU, otherwise her EU card would be meaningless, because it is not usable anyway. Weird. HUH.)

OK, here goes: Everything you say in this post seems to make sense, even as a mere possibility.
However, what you believe T-Pap's strategy is, sounds naive to me (naive on his part, not yours). I mean, he can't exactly control whether Turkey accedes to the EU or not... It's actually quite possible for Turkey's EU prospects to wither, some time in the future (distant or near). So, you're actually saying that T-Pap is taking a huge risk, a true gamble, the outcome of which he has no control over...? Did I get it right? That sounds stupid to me (again, on his part, not yours)... It doesn't make that much sense as the rest of your post. I don't mean to be offensive, by the way (and sorry if you feel I am).

[boulio]

the problem though however jimmy and turkcyp which you both brought up good points is what would have happened if the roc agreed to the annan plan which gave turkey intevention rights on the whole island and and then say three years from now there eu bid fails and they dont withdraw troops or evacuate land that they were supposed to?what would stop them from bring more settlers to the island?the roc and greece's strategy is that turkey within the framework of the eu would be a more stable partner and not as rigid and dangerous as outside of the eu.the roc will not bank its future on turkeys goodwill,at least not while its trying to get a date for the eu.