mehmet wrote:
This article is speculative opinion. Anyone latching onto it as some great truth is desperte.
This is my view. There will be no military invasion in the sense of an army marching in. What there will be is what there already is; air strikes. At the moment carried out by Turkish forces, if they can get the Americans to assist them it will be all the better for them to achieve their aims. The tough talk by AKP threatening war is just for public consumption, the real war will be in the diplomatic field. People in Turkey are very aware that the PKK are trying to draw Turkey into a confrontation so that its objective regarding EU are damaged. The balancing act for the AKP is to be seen to be tough on PKK without endangering their goal of drawing Turkey closer to Europe without provoking the military to intervene. So far the AKP have been smart where taking on the military establishment is concerned, they now have an AKP member as President, a majority in the parliament on an increased share of the vote, and a recent referundum victory to allow the President to be directly elected by the people rather than by Parliament in future. The AKP are not about to embark on some adventure in northern Iraq. Several commentators have pointed out that there have been 24 previous incursions without ultimate success of defeating the PKK. They only have to look further south in Iraq to see how occupying a country does not necessarily lead to the political defeat of your opponents.
Do they apply this "rule-of-thumb" to their continued occupation of Cyprus?
Of course they understand that point. Why else did they support negotiations under UN control after years of saying they solved the Cyprus problem?
