Cyprus-Forum.com

[Oneness]

Is the USA transfering its political support away from Turkey to Iraq, in particular, as a strategic miltiary partnet and ally?

There are a number of signs which together indicate a ground sweeping shift may be underway.

- there is considerable oil in Northern Iraq where there is also a large Kurdish population whose rights arse not recognised by Turkey

- since Iraq invasion by USA military and allies, USA has earned an alternative to Turkey as a close miltiary ally in the region

- Iraq is as much if not a more stratgic location than Turkey for US military opertions


Recent developments

- in May 2007, Ankara warned USA about repeating violations of its airspace in the Kurdish North Eastern area of Turkey

- October 2007, USA passes a bill recognising the Armenian Genocide by the Turks ; Turkey warns of consequences

- October 2007, Turkey votes over a military incursion into Northern Iraq while Iraq and USA try to persuade Turkey against this offensive into Iraq but to become a partner with Iraq on this issue

- October 2007, there are rumours of US plans for a possible transfer of its miliary bases from Turkey to Iraq

Putting this all together, there is a huge shift in allegiances which may result in USA not needing Turkey so much any more..... That can only be good for the Kurds and Cyprus.....

[shahmaran]

What are they going to do about Afghanistan?

Or the pipelines?

[Oneness]

Who would have imagined 5 or 10 years ago the shift in relations between Turkey and USA? Or between USA and Iraq, for that matter? That being the case, who's to say other unlikely scenarios could occur .... scenarios that could result in USA having still less dependance upon Turkey.

The fact is USA does not particularly like Turkey, due to the latter's arrogant, aggressive and disrespectful behaviour towards all entities not Turkish, in particular, towards the USA itself. At governmental level, the Turkish ego is even more inflated than its own. Greece has far more cultural affiliations with USA including USAs large Greek American population. But personal differences are put aside when it comes to the cold business of politics and strategic interests.

Unfortunately, the west currently depend upon Turkey for oil pipelines passing through and the USA for its military bases there and also for its arrangement to use Turkish airspace and on the ground to tranpsort military supplies to and from Iraq. But these things can change just like things do and have changed through the passage of history. Turkey is not particularly liked by the West for its aggressive authoritarian political stance and if they can find an alternative to serve their interests, they will do.

[bg_turk]

It is really naive to believe that the United States can so easily move to Northern Iraq. If it could, would it not have done so already.

Northern Iraq is not accessible from anywhere but Turkey. For a base to be built there, Americans will still need Turkish ports and airspace to be able to access it. If Syria and Iran become pro-American at some point in the future, and are willing to provide their airspace to the USA such a move will be feasible, but certainly not now.

[Oneness]

Naive? I think I made it clear that I was talking about what could happen in the future! It is not at all the case that Turkey's strategic importance is written in stone. Circumstance change. Things have changed and will continue to change. There is a problem being that the West is perceiving the Turkish government unpredictable and difficult to reason with and that currently the West is overreliant on this one country. Until now, the new Iraq government has shown itself to be much more pliable. So if something can be done to reduce dependance upon Turkey, it will.

Currently, about 80% of US military supplies pass through Turkey but US forces also use Kuwait to access southern Iraq and about 20% of supplies pass through this route.

Iraq is also bordered by Syria, Iran, Jordan and Saudi Arabia. Im not saying the USA is able to gain access by these routes now but you never know what might happen in 5 or 10 years time!

[phoenix]

It is really naive to believe that the United States can so easily move to Northern Iraq. If it could, would it not have done so already.
Northern Iraq is not accessible from anywhere but Turkey. For a base to be built there, Americans will still need Turkish ports and airspace to be able to access it. If Syria and Iran become pro-American at some point in the future, and are willing to provide their airspace to the USA such a move will be feasible, but certainly not now.

But the USA is already IN Iraq . . . so your argument doesn't stand. They are not likely to MARCH across the mountains to get to Northern Iraq.

And since they are also already in Afghanistan, (pretty far East) Turkey is just superfluous

Turkey's "glory" days are over.

[Eric dayi]

Day dreaming with open eyes must be a favorite past time for most GCs.

[Nikitas]

Obviously Americans have not gone to Iraq for nothing. There were reasons taht have not been stated yet, but we can speculate. As the shift in strategic intersets os to the east, to China, India, and the Pacific area in general itis obvious that the Mediterranean is no longer on the front burner.

[bg_turk]

There is a problem being that the West is perceiving the Turkish government unpredictable and difficult to reason with and that currently the West is overreliant on this one country. Until now, the new Iraq government has shown itself to be much more pliable.

There is no such thing as an Iraqi government. There is an American puppet government which depends for its existence solely on the American military presence in Iraq. In case of an American withdrawal, I have no doubt in my mind that it will be replaced by some Iran style theocracy.

So if something can be done to reduce dependance upon Turkey, it will.

If there was something to be done to reduce the dependence on Turkey it would have been done already. Turkey denied the United States permission to use its territory as a launchpad for its invasion of Iraq. Why didn't the US act then?

Iraq is also bordered by Syria, Iran, Jordan and Saudi Arabia. Im not saying the USA is able to gain access by these routes now but you never know what might happen in 5 or 10 years time!

5 to 10 years is too short a time horizon for any of those countries to become pro-American, especially given America's support to Israel.

Rerouting all supplies from the south is unrelistic because that would leave the USA at the mercy of Iran which can easily block the narrow Strait of Hormuz, which they have done on several occasions in the past.

[paliometoxo]

good usa finally see they dont need turkey and found better place for the military... down for the turks