Cyprus-Forum.com

[boomerang]

the balance of power does indeed changes and the RoC has a chance to reclaim the occupied areas, what would the partitionists do?

1...accept it and become citizens of the RoC
or
2...Migrate to turkey?

I always wondered about this...

[Nikitas]

I like these hypothetical questions. It is a long shot, the balance of power changing to the point that the big powers would push Turkey back inside its borders. If it happens the majority of Turkish Cypriots will reorganize to claim the maximum they can under the 1960 consitution and the EU.

In many ways this would be far more than they could expect under a federal, confederal or outright partition. The combo of the 1960 constitution and the EU aquis is far more generous. Especially in terms of economic development the EU programmes give a lot. Given that the Turkish Cypriots have enough trained people to put the grants to good use, especially if they do not have the fantaics on top of them to sifon the money off to cronies' pockets which has been happening till now (not my conclusion, read TC commentators about this).the outcome would be beneficial to them.

Even compared to outright partition, that so many like to promote as THE solution, the situation would be better. Partition means that they would be cut off from the major markets of the island. Trade with Turkey or other countries simply cannot substitute the benefits of participation in the island's market for goods and services for the majority of the population.

A few diehard partitionists would leave no doubt. Some might even stay away forever. Some will return in time when they see that they are not as welcome in the "motherland" as they thought they would be.

However, in all this there is that "IF" so it is all hypothetical. Reminds me of a line in the play the Perils of Pendragon: "a very hypothetical young man..... "

[Viewpoint]

How will that hypothetical power change effect TCs is a more important question, the chain of events and outcome on the TC community will determine whether they stay or go. You seem to forget that TCs may cross south and live in pretty much what it would be like in a GC state where GC are the majority and where they will have near enough no say in the running of their country yet TCs remain north. Their number 1 priority is how the balance of power will arranged, will they have an effective say or will they be pushed out and have to fight for representation with only 18% of the potential TC vote? These issues cannot be left to chance as GCs are to devious and will use every means possible to ensure we have absolutely no say in our own future.

[Nikitas]

VP

In this hypothetical scenario Phoenix is describing a departure of the Turkish forces and a takeover by the RoC.

Stressing the hypothetical aspect, I can imagine that the first phase would be one where the foreign media like CNN, Al Jazeera, BBC etc are crawling over the whole island for weeks if not months. Then there would be all kinds of EU officials poking their noses into everything trying to outdo the Americans who will no doubt be rushing in to gain maximum leverage. Add to this the thousands of bloggers, posters and other web regulars and it becomes obvious that the situation is not all that predictable. The RoC will be in the international spotlight and eager to gain maximum benefit as a "good guy".

Then there will be the matter of the 18 per cent which is no small market segment. In addition to all other status aspects do not forget that the 18 per cent will also be consumers and therefore valued clients of all businesses of the island.

These are just some aspects that will come into play if the hypothetical scenario comes about. I see so many variables that I really cannot predict how it would turn out. In terms of politics I imagine that naturally the Turkish Cypriots will reclaim full rights under the 1960 constitution. This time there will be the EU to deal with and things cannot just go back to the way they were in the 60s. Cant tell if they will be better or worse but definitely they will be different for one simple reason- one wrong move and the EU will come down on us all like a ton of bricks, with fines, witheld subsidies, trade restrictions and a host of other measures.

Hypothetical as the scenario is it is interesting!

[Nikitas]

Oops, it is Boomerang that posted the hypothesis not Phoenix, apologies Boomerang. Pyro is right, one should not post under the influence (joking, just drinking mineral water here!)

[denizaksulu]

the balance of power does indeed changes and the RoC has a chance to reclaim the occupied areas, what would the partitionists do?

1...accept it and become citizens of the RoC
or
2...Migrate to turkey?

I always wondered about this...

I'd say they would stay home. They are Cypriots. Maybe the settlers would go back (wishful thinking). But give details of this balance of power and how the North is reclaimed.
Regards

[Viewpoint]

Is this hypothetical swing in power allowing for the rush of refugees claiming property from current residents and the mayhem this will cause. The bombs and riots that will occur when GCs cannot just go back and how the TCs will feel having a flood of angry GCs playing siege to the north. It is not as simple as you try to make out and the EU or UN are crap at intervening, they need to have several hundred meetings before deciding to buy a pen let alone intervene to stop a civil war where bloodshed occurs. These thoughts are very much hypothetical and are destined to stay that way as we dig in for the long haul as it appears neither side is willing to budge on any issue.

[Nikitas]

Actually VP on that point of return to property I would imagine that the RoC government will step in and prevent a rush by anyone to get their property back. It could not afford the political cost of a free for all. I guess there would be a reverse operation of the refugee rehousing of the 70s. Also dont forget our powerful land developer class, on both sides, whose interests cannot be overlooked ( I am being cynical but that is how it is). They definitely would not want to see a sudden oversupply of housing so things would have to be controlled. I reckon it would take at least a year if not longer to sort out the final returns of property, and there would be a lot of voluntary exchanges since they would be totally legal in the hypothetical situation we are talking about now.

To administer all this there would have to be a Turkish Cypriot civil service and the irony might be that the TRNC apparatus will have to be left running just to administer things.

In all this I have a wish list. The leaders of both sides asking the British to vacate their bases right away. Within hours rather than days. And crowds from both communities breaking through the perimeter fences to stage sit ins on the runways of Akrotiri. In a hypothetical scenario I can dream!

[phoenix]

Oops, it is Boomerang that posted the hypothesis not Phoenix, apologies Boomerang. Pyro is right, one should not post under the influence (joking, just drinking mineral water here!)

This is at least the second time Nikitas that you have incorrectly linked me to a post . . .

I must drive you up the wall!

[denizaksulu]

Oops, it is Boomerang that posted the hypothesis not Phoenix, apologies Boomerang. Pyro is right, one should not post under the influence (joking, just drinking mineral water here!)

This is at least the second time Nikitas that you have incorrectly linked me to a post . . .

I must drive you up the wall!

Nikitas must have heard of your famed beauty. No wonder he cant get you out of his mind.