Cyprus-Forum.com

[devil]

Volcanoes are more predictable than earthquakes, but they are irrelevant to this thread.

I repeat: no earthquake can be predicted, neither in time, nor in duration, nor in intensity, nor in damage that may be caused, nor in aftershock activity. There are many places where the "big'un" can happen. including San Andreas, the N. Anatolian fault in the Istanbul region etc. It might happen today, It might not happen in the next decade, no one can tell. What we know is that the Cyprian Arc is relatively quiescent just now, so it is unlikely that we'll have a catastrophic one in the near future, although the Mesaoria fault could go: unfortunately, if it does, it'll possibly be a bad one. It last slipped about 1600 years ago and caused massive destruction. However, it may be another 1600 years before it goes again. Quien sabé?

[oranos64]

Volcanoes are more predictable than earthquakes, but they are irrelevant to this thread.

I repeat: no earthquake can be predicted, neither in time, nor in duration, nor in intensity, nor in damage that may be caused, nor in aftershock activity. There are many places where the "big'un" can happen. including San Andreas, the N. Anatolian fault in the Istanbul region etc. It might happen today, It might not happen in the next decade, no one can tell. What we know is that the Cyprian Arc is relatively quiescent just now, so it is unlikely that we'll have a catastrophic one in the near future, although the Mesaoria fault could go: unfortunately, if it does, it'll possibly be a bad one. It last slipped about 1600 years ago and caused massive destruction. However, it may be another 1600 years before it goes again. Quien sabé?

not really friend ....because there is a team from italy on Thira at the moment and they are my fathers friends ...as i said i admire thira ...i find it fascinating .....i have seen documentaries on the volcano ...bought books and as a innocent ...i was told that there could be a eruption within the next 5-10 years ....and i was given access to GR WEB SITES ...

Two scientists have expressed an interests in the areas plate movement

again i repeat i did not say it will definately happen very soon but rather that i am concerned the prepareness should something like this happen .....was anyone ready for mt st helens in the 80s .....?

[oranos64]

also did thira not erupt in 1939 -41 ...and 1950 and would you not agree that the agean is one big volcano ...defunct tired but with the odd mini volcanos

also did walter friedrich in 1999 visit the area and say " the volcano shows movement ,,,i view the area safe but open to a possible eruption in the next 15- years .....

you are probably wondering why i say all this ,...i worked within contingency planning in IT/BUSINESS PLANNING

Here in cyprus ..i work various depts of the U.N and Cyprus goverment in emergency planning...

I respect your views and advice ...but planning is somethign i scarely see happening in cyprus ....so i rather not wait for the worse in any circumstances ...

[LENA]

Devil why different websites mention different numbers? I heard about 4.6, 4.8, 4.2...now 3.5 Why all this... they can not give us one number?

Thanks for the info really helpful and I am sorry about your car!

I also heard that animals feel the earthquakes coming ... dont know if thats its true!

[denizaksulu]

Weather has ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to do with seismic activity. More than categorical answer! If heat were a factor, why do you get earthquakes in winter, where more people perish from the cold than from the shock?

The magnitude has been downgraded to 3.5 and the epicentre will move around a little as more data are collected.



Our house is roughly where the C of CMSO is on the above map.

We felt it badly because it is shallow, meaning the effects are most pronounced in a small radius (generally one at 10 km down will rarely be felt at great distances, but can cause much local damage).

I understand the point you are making, but when weather is mentioned by Twinkle, I wonder if there might be a miniscule indirect effect due to the difference in temp change and moisture content change, causing 'fissures' maybe. Being between two enormous techtonic plates doesnt help matters at all. Unfortunately there are so many ancient cities around the Aegean and Salamis in Cyprus which literally 'slipped' into the sea. Lets just hope. No more disasters befall our lovely Island.
Regards.

[denizaksulu]

Devil why different websites mention different numbers? I heard about 4.6, 4.8, 4.2...now 3.5 Why all this... they can not give us one number?

Thanks for the info really helpful and I am sorry about your car!

I also heard that animals feel the earthquakes coming ... dont know if thats its true!

During the Paphos earthquake in the 1950's which has been discussed in detail sadly, by a forum member, I was staying in Kivisili/ Larnaca. I remember the dogs howling all night and the next day we had the suspended dust in the atmosphere. It was scary and weird. Then on the radio we heard of the earthquake in the Paphos region.
What the dogs must have felt was the beginnings of the tremors. They can 'hear' or sense them long before they can be percieved by humans.
So what you are asking, is true.

[devil]

Temperature: this one was a very shallow one, it was only 10 km down! Please reflect, how can changes in temp at the surface affect rocks 10 km down, let alone 100 km as some earthquakes are??????

The measurement of the intensity of an earthquake is quite empirical on a logarithmic scale. If you have data from, say, 3 or 4 seismographs, you can triangulate to make a guestimate of position, depth and intensity. If you have a further data set, you can make it more accurate, more so with the next ones. The initial values are therefore just a guestimation and, as more dat arrives at the institute concerned, so the parameters are tightened into a more accurate picture. This is why it almost invariably changes, either way, over the first 24 hours.

Our dog was fast asleep until the tremors hit: then he ran like hell upstairs.

[denizaksulu]

[quote="devil"]Temperature: this one was a very shallow one, it was only 10 km down! Please reflect, how can changes in temp at the surface affect rocks 10 km down, let alone 100 km as some earthquakes are??????

The measurement of the intensity of an earthquake is quite empirical on a logarithmic scale. If you have data from, say, 3 or 4 seismographs, you can triangulate to make a guestimate of position, depth and intensity. If you have a further data set, you can make it more accurate, more so with the next ones. The initial values are therefore just a guestimation and, as more dat arrives at the institute concerned, so the parameters are tightened into a more accurate picture. This is why it almost invariably changes, either way, over the first 24 hours.

Our dog was fast asleep until the tremors hit: then he ran like hell upstairs.[/quote]

Poor dog. Thanks for extra detailed info.
Deniz

[twinkle]

Also, did anyone feel the small aftershock around 15 mins ago. I'm checking the USGS website now.

There was a 4.1 quake off the coast of Crete towards Cyprus at 10:35am. I posted the comment above around that time!!!!

[MariaEvri]

it was four point something
we didnt feel it at limassol.. not a very alarming earthquake in my opinion