Cyprus-Forum.com

[Agios Amvrosios]

Bosnia shows pitfalls of UN plan for Cyprus

By Andrew Gray

SARAJEVO, Nov 13 (Reuters) - U.N. officials have cited Switzerland as the model for their new Cyprus peace plan. But the blueprint also seems to borrow from a country much less associated with peace, prosperity and harmony -- Bosnia.

The experiences of the former Yugoslav republic since its 1992-95 war show that complex power-sharing structures only work if the people involved genuinely want to make them work.

If they do not, the result can be endless bickering, economic stagnation and layers of bureaucracy a poor country can ill afford. The West ends up running much of the show.

"Highly complicated constitutional arrangements...work best in rich states," said Mark Wheeler, Bosnia project director at the International Crisis Group think tank. "They look very bulky, because they're incredibly inefficient, in poor states."

The U.S.-backed Dayton agreement which ended the war divided Bosnia into two highly autonomous "entities" -- apparently much as the U.N. plan announced on Monday foresees a Cyprus of two "component states," one Greek Cypriot and one Turkish Cypriot.

Bosnia's entities, a Muslim-Croat federation and a Serb Republic, each have their own president, government, parliament, police force, army, customs service, television channels, mobile phone network and sources of revenue.

Central institutions have far less power, although international officials have worked to bolster them.

They are also inhibited by blocking mechanisms meant to safeguard the rights of different ethnic groups. Those mechanisms have often been used to scupper or slow down reforms which would have made Bosnia a more viable state.

Politicians were unable to agree even on such mundane issues as the design of a common passport or vehicle licence plate after months of talks. The international community's High Representative finally had to impose solutions.

As Cyprus is set to be invited into the European Union, it may be all the more important it can speak with one voice rather than the cacophony that sometimes comes from Bosnia.

FRUSTRATION WITH ROTATION

At the top of the Bosnian state stands a presidency of three members -- one from each of the main ethnic groups. The chairmanship rotates every eight months, much as the Cyprus plan envisages a presidential council with a rotating presidency

Analysts say the presidency has functioned well when it has been in the hands of moderates. But when nationalists dominate -- as they do now following elections last month -- it can achieve little as the members pursue rival agendas.

The chairmanship of the council of ministers, the closest thing Bosnia has to a cabinet, also rotates. The current High Representative, Britain's Paddy Ashdown, finds that arrangement so inefficient he wants to abolish it.

The tangle of institutions and slow pace of change has led some commentators to call on the West to admit Bosnia will always be unviable, let its Serb and Croat areas join with Serbia and Croatia and leave only a rump Muslim-dominated state.

"Time to concede defeat in Bosnia-Herzegovina," declared a recent piece by respected U.S. columnist William Pfaff.

But defenders of the current set-up say that, while it is not ideal, it is a compromise all sides have been able to live with -- about the best that could have been hoped for after such a vicious and bitter war in which around 200,000 people died.

They are encouraging Bosnians to see Dayton as the starting point on the roadto normality, rather than a final destination.

[brother]

This guy likes posting greek propoganda, but that is the actions of someone trying to tear the forum up by pouring this poison all over the forum.

Old news designed to bring up nationalistic tendencies like the EOKA men done back at the core of the cyprus problem.