Report Warns EU Not To Alienate Turkey
Growing mistrust between Ankara and the European Union regarding Turkey’s prospects for joining the 27-nation political bloc risk pushing the country to pursue its own security and defense agendas independent of Europe, and will retard reformist efforts to scale back the Turkish military’s grip on the levers of government, argues the International Crisis Group (ICG).
In a new 53-page report, “Turkey and Europe: The Way Ahead,” released Aug. 17, the ICG warns of the strategic risk for Europe of alienating Ankara by dragging out or permanently diluting the country’s chances of becoming an EU member. The union accorded candidacy status to Turkey in 1999 and opened membership negotiations in late 2004 on the first of 35 legal and economic chapters, or legislative changes, that Turkey must adopt to be fully eligible to join.
But the talks have progressed at an achingly slow pace in view of growing public resistance in Europe to the idea of further EU expansion. For instance, the union froze the opening of eight negotiating chapters in December due to a political impasse with Ankara over Cyprus, whose northern Turkish ethnic community is diplomatically shunned by the world but protected by mainland Turkish military forces. More telling, the two biggest EU member states — France and Germany — now have ruling parties hostile to Turkish membership.
“Europeans who attack the prospect of Turkish membership of the EU underestimate the damage they do to European interests,” asserts the ICG report, adding that without the promise of membership, there can be no external democratic pressure on Turkey’s military authorities to stop meddling in the country’s political affairs. “The military has sought to reverse the course of the EU-bound political process” as a result of the growing alienation between Europe and Turkey.
The mistrust has also prompted Turkey to reduce its contribution to Europe’s common security policy, according to the report.
“Ankara is showing signs of independent military policies over which Europe has diminishing leverage. The great bond between Turkey and Europe since the Second World War was always a military alliance, but this threatens to go into reverse,” says the report, warning that Ankara is determined to take a more assertive role vis-à-vis northern Iraq, which Turkey’s rebel Kurds use as an operating base.
Northern Iraq’s own Kurdish community is effectively a separate state under the U.S. military’s protection.
If Turkey’s estrangement with the West goes too far, the ICG report argues, Ankara “may even seek to develop its own nuclear weapons to defend itself against what it sees as potentially threatening weaponization in Iran and elsewhere in the Middle East. The U.S. may keep it in check, but Europe risks giving up all leverage.”
The loss would also be commercial, since Ankara is now snubbing Europe’s Typhoon Eurofighter program in favor of a U.S. solution for its next generation of fighters, the report observes.
Source:
http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?F=2980848&C=europe