Cyprus-Forum.com

[AndreasNic]

Turkey is bluffing! They hope that one of the two sides will vote "No" (preferably the Greek Cypriot side), in which case they will say something in the lines of: "We tried our best and therefore it is not our fault". But if both sides say "Yes" then Turkish parliament will not approve the solution.

This is just my opinion of course, but I think that this is exactly the game that Turkey is playing right now.

[PEACE]

Turkey is bluffing!

If it is not? After new order established you will try to make it unstable and try to get the rights that are given us with Annan Plan which you see too much for us??

[metecyp]

But if both sides say "Yes" then Turkish parliament will not approve the solution.

You might be right, only time will show. But the Foreign Minister of Turkey made a statement recently that if T/C community votes "Yes" for Annan plan, then it would be absurd not to approve the plan in the Turkish parliament.

[Greek Cypriot]

But if both sides say "Yes" then Turkish parliament will not approve the solution.

You might be right, only time will show. But the Foreign Minister of Turkey made a statement recently that if T/C community votes "Yes" for Annan plan, then it would be absurd not to approve the plan in the Turkish parliament.

I think AndreasNic can be right. Why does Denctash insist that the Turkish parliament should vote after the referendums? Don't you find that such an order is very absurd?
This is actually one of the problems in the negotiations right now. Papadopoulos says that parliaments should approve solution before referendums, while Denctash insist for the opposite.

In any case, bluffing or not I don't agree that we should vote something we do not belive in just to call their bluff. If you can accept it, vote "yes" if not vote "no".

[metecyp]

Why does Denctash insist that the Turkish parliament should vote after the referendums? Don't you find that such an order is very absurd?

Here's a detailed analysis I guess for Turkish goverment wanting to vote after the referandums.

If the Turkish parliament is required to vote after referandums, then we have the following possibilities.

1- Both or one of the sides say "No" to the plan. In this case, the Turkish parliament doesn't even need to discuss the plan in the parliment, since the plan is not accepted. Turkey is not harmed. (Good)

2- Both sides say "Yes" to the plan. In this case, the Turkish goverment will be able to explain to people in Turkey (especially military and people who think north Cyprus is being sold) that since both sides agreed on a solution, it's absurd to stop this. Afterall, Turkish hardliners claim that Turkish army is in Cyprus to protect T/Cs, and if T/Cs vote "Yes" referandum, then these people won't be able to say anything back. So it's very likely that Turkish parliament says "Yes" as well. (Good)


Now, if the Turkish parliament is required to vote before referandums, then we have the following possibilities.

1- Turkish parliament votes "Yes" and T/Cs votes "Yes" and G/C votes "Yes" or "No"(doesn't matter). In this situation, no matter what happens, Turkish side is in good shape. (Good)

2- Turkish parliament votes "Yes" and T/Cs votes "No" and G/C votes "Yes" or "No"(doesn't matter). Although unlikely, in this case, T/Cs will be blamed most. Turkey will be in good shape. (Good)

3- Turkish parliament votes "No" and T/Cs votes "Yes" and G/C votes "Yes". In this case, Turkey will be considered a country blocking an agreement, not good. (Bad)

4- Turkish parliament votes "No" and T/Cs votes "Yes" and G/C votes "No". In this case, Turkey will be considered going against T/Cs wishes, not good. (Bad)

5- Turkish parliament votes "No" and T/Cs votes "No" and G/C votes "Yes". Although unlikely, in this case, Turkish side will be considered blocking an agreement. (Bad)

6- Turkish parliament votes "No" and T/Cs votes "No" and G/C votes "No". In this case, nobody wants a solution, no harm to any specific side. (Good)

As you can see, it's much logical for Turkish government to ask for referandums first before making a decision in the parliament both domestically and internationally. That way, Turkish government will have much flexibility in trying to come up as the "good side".

To sum up, I don't think that Turkey is bluffing. If T/C and G/C people say "Yes" to this plan, I don't think that Turkey, or any other country, or even the politicians in the north and south can block it.

[antonis]

If the Turkish Parliament does not endorse the plan before the referendum, then this raises questions whether or not it accepts it. The UK and Greece are going to do this before the 21st of April, why not Turkey?
The "wait and see what happens" policy raises doubts.

[Greek Cypriot]

Interesting analysis. I agree that the whole game of turkey is to come out with a "Good" out of all this story.

Where I disagree is that if both sides vote "Yes" they will vote "yes" also.

If they were willing to do whatever TC decide then they could vote "yes" and say that TC can decide if they will say "yes" or "no". If the hardliners are not ready to accept that the decision is up to the TC, what makes you believe that they will accept this after the referendum?
I insit that this is absurd.

Politicians represent citizens because we can not do a referendum for every decision that a state will take. But when we do a referendum, thats the final word since it is coming directly from the people. This is another case of how Turkish politics are not democratic at all.

If they were telling me that after the GC vote for something Greece will come to other accept or reject what we voted (even if it was typical procedure) I would be really mad and would not accept it. The fact that you accept such thing without complains just shows how used you are of having non democratic procedures.


My analysis is a bit different:

The Turkish parliament if it votes, it will vote "no".
Therefore they want the referendum to be first, so the chances that they will have to vote will be small (since they are not cooparating to make the plan acceptable for our site). This way they have a great chance to come out of this as "Good" and only a small chance to come out "bad" (this will be the case that both sides vote "yes").

[metecyp]

If they were willing to do whatever TC decide then they could vote "yes" and say that TC can decide if they will say "yes" or "no". If the hardliners are not ready to accept that the decision is up to the TC, what makes you believe that they will accept this after the referendum? I insit that this is absurd.

See, when we talk about Turkey, we need to consider many center of powers. If it was only Turkish government involved, I'm sure Cyprus problem would be solved. But when it comes to important matters like Cyprus (they call it "national matters"), the elected government has only part of the decision. There're other factors (military, "deep state", etc.) that go into this equation of decision process. I know this is not democratic, but I never claimed that Turkey was a totally democratic state, did I?

Now what makes me believe that Turkish parliament will say "Yes" is that Turkish parliament is controlled by AKP (the party in power). And AKP is really serious about getting into EU, reforms, and etc. Besides Recep Erdogan (Turkish PM) stated to the whole world (including Bush) that the Turkish side would also be one step further from the Greek side. Plus, Erdogan almost "begged" to Annan to start the negotiations again, giving assurances that they'll support an agreement as much as they can. Now, after all these promises to the international community, if two communities on the island say "Yes", I don't think that the Turkish parliament would be able to say "No" UNLESS the current government collapses due to pressures from hardliners, military, etc. (which is possible, but not as possible as it used to be).

If they were telling me that after the GC vote for something Greece will come to other accept or reject what we voted (even if it was typical procedure) I would be really mad and would not accept it. The fact that you accept such thing without complains just shows how used you are of having non democratic procedures

Did I say that I accept anything? I just stated my opinions on why the Turkish government favors referandum before it needs to make a decision, that's it. Actually, I've always demanded Turkey to be sincere and open to T/Cs and state its position on Cyprus issue. I always wanted them to say "Cyprus is a hostage in our EU journey" if that's the case, and etc.

Final note, your analysis can be correct if the current government collapses. In that case, it will be easier for the new government to say "No" because it would be the old government that gave all those promises.