insan wrote:For instance, this subtle point about "what would happen if all the refugees returned" ... most TCs, even in this forum, believe that it would be impossible for all refugees to return and still have bizonality. And yet, this is not true. Why do you believe it then? Don't you see it is Rauf talking here?
Alexandros,
We don't know what's the exact definition of refugee. If all of their descendants and spouses also would be considered in the refugee group; their numbers must be at least twice the number you assume...
Insan,
Yes, we would have to add desendants born after 1974 (and mixed marriages with non-refugees also), but we also should subtract number of deaths of refugees since 1974 ...
I am not sure what the final number would be, most probably it would be more than 70,000 but not by much.
But this doesn't really matter: I can't really envision a Plan that would give the right of return strictly based on refugee status (this was the older approach in negotiations, before the mid-90s). This is not right, "because it is a provision that looks to the past istead of to the future". What do I mean? Basically, I envision "4 different types of return under TC administration":
a. Refugees who will choose to take up permanent residence in the north.
b. Refugees who will choose to have a second home (a holiday home) in the north, while remaining residents of the GC state.
(this is going to be the largest group by far)
c. Non-refugees who will choose to take up permanent residence in the north.
d. Non-refugees who will choose to have a second home in the north.
Somehow, a solution Plan has to cater for all the above groups, with the following guidelines:
- There has to be "a limit" to those who return in groups a. and c. , in order to protect bizonality. But if this limit is something generous, like 30%, then we can be sure that any GC who does wish to take up residence in the north will be able to do so.
- The satisfaction of group b. the largest group, will depend exclusively on how the property issue is resolved - residence rights do not concern them, neither will these people affect political bizonality. All that these people want, is a home that they can call their own in the north, so that they can take their kids there over the weekend and show them the village of "pappou" (grandfather). This is where my suggestion for "the right to a new home" comes in to help.
- The satisfaction of group d. (and of group c. for that matter) will mostly depend on how much the free market is applied, ie to what extent they are entitled to purchase property in the north after the solution. The current limitation of 15 years before a GC can purchase property in the north is prohibitive, because people experience it as being "half a lifetime away" ...
Got to go now ... See you later !