Cyprus-Forum.com

[Bananiot]

I think you have a valid point here Alexandros. Our Foreign Minister Iacovou did talk about this the other day. He said that from 1999 we negotiate as two politically equal communities and this is reflected in the plan of the secretary general which we rejected. Now, he said, we want Turkey to recognise us first (through the signing of the customs union protocol) so that we can change the agenda of the negotiations setting a new target.

I think political equality of the two communities is totally unacceptable for Papadopoulos but I find it very difficult for Papadopoulos to convince anyone about this issue. In fact, any endeavour from Papadopoulos to go back on this, will increase his international isolation.

Also, his recent sarcastic reference on the "European solution" which was his flagship for convincing people to vote "no" in the referendum has sent alarming signals to the serious observers. Suddenly, he has sent to the dustbin the demand for "European solution" and startled observers had to digest that our basic objection to the plan is the structure of the state, a subject that has nothing to do with the Acquis Communautaire.

[-mikkie2-]

I tend to agree with the comments of Alexadros. I think EVERYONE is underestimating Papadopoulos and I do think that is a big mistake.

Regarding your comments Insan, I think that Papadopoulos is a realist.

It is obvious and inevitable that Turkey must recognise the Republic of Cyprus. It is the RoC that eventually consented to Turkey starting negotiations with the EU. Turkey should be very well aware of this and that Cyprus will be at every turn along Turkeys path.

The signing of the Protocol will extend de facto recognition to the RoC. The next stage would be for Cyprus to be able to trade directly with Turkey, it will ask (and be entitled to) overflight rights for civilian aircraft over Turkish territory, and so on. In this situation, Turkey could not refuse these rights to Cyprus by claiming non-recognition!

Also, the whole of Cyprus IS now EU territory! That is not a claim, it is absolute fact. What is aslo fact is that the EU has suspended the Acquis in the north because it recognises that the north of Cyprus is under occupation.

Legally, Turkey has little room for manouver. All she can do is to play for time.

Listen carefully to what Dennis McShane has to say. He is saying precisely that Turkey must normalise relations with Cyprus. It is a necessary and unavoidable fact!

[insan]

mikkie,

I still can't find the answer of how all these will happen before a permenant solution has been reached. What's the meaning of diplomatic recognition of RoC by Turkey as the legitimate government of RoC with no TC participation in it? Neither there's a legal basis of this argument nor rational...

[Alexandros Lordos]

So, Alexandros;

Do you expect that Turkey will diplomatically recognize the RoC as a legitimate government represents whole Cyprus, before a permenant solution has been reached?

In my opinion, it is impossible. So what would happen in that case?


In that case, Tassos together with Greece and some other EU countries; most probably would veto Turkey in October.

Hmm, I don't think that Tassos expects full diplomatic recognition, in the sense of setting up embassies and so on. He will be happy enough with the "de facto" recognition that will come with Turkey signing the Protocol to expand Customs Union to the ten new states. He knows that even this will be a big squeeze on Turkey, even though Turkey will be playing down its significance.

So, as long as Turkey signs the protocol before October (and I am sure it will be signed) then Tassos will not veto. He will be happy to have made his point, that Turkey cannot make it into the EU without solving the Cyprus Problem, and then he will focus on recommencing negotiations ... but with an easy pace, no deadlines.

Assuming that Turkey signs the protocol over the next two - three months, instead of waiting until October, then negotiations over Cyprus could begin soon after April's elections in the north ...

[Bananiot]

I cannot see how Papadopoulos will convinve the other side or indeed the international community to accept anything less than political equality of the two communities. I think partition will be at the end if he pursues this policy.

[Alexandros Lordos]

I cannot see how Papadopoulos will convinve the other side or indeed the international community to accept anything less than political equality of the two communities. I think partition will be at the end if he pursues this policy.

Well, the trick is ... that he won't. He won't attack political equality head on - instead, he will try to put a different slant to it, push to see how much the TCs will be willing to tolerate, and then bargain for the best he can get. Bazaar kind of thing.

What I fear is that he will neglect to negotiate refugee rights, which is where the missing "Yes" votes really are, and which would be easily tolerable to the TC side anyway.

[Saint Jimmy]

So, as long as Turkey signs the protocol before October (and I am sure it will be signed) then Tassos will not veto.

Hello again everybody
I've been following this discussion and no one has so far mentioned or commented on the possibility of Turkey indeed signing the Protocol, but only after it has been amended accordingly to suit her needs... Does no one see that as a realistic possibility (and, if not, why - this is what I'm really asking)? If that happened, Tassos's strategy/plan of action would suffer a devastating blow, non? Why has no one explored that possibility? I mean, I've heard a lot of GC politicians mentioning it as a practical certainty (that Turkey will try, and most probably accomplish, to change the wording of the Protocol).

[-mikkie2-]

The wording of the protocol cannot be changed or ammended to suit a non-member of the EU!

The protocol was signed and agreed by all 25 member states and Turkey has made the commitment to sign it before October.

Returning to Insan's comments, well I am talking about de facto recognition, not official diplomatic recognition. De fcato recognition would imply that Cyprus will have the legitimate right to have its civil aircraft use Turkish airspace, for Cypriot registered shipping (1/6th of the world fleet) to be able to use Turkish ports, and for trade between Cyprus and Turkey to occur.

As for Turkey thinking that the RoC is 'illegitimate', well why doesn't she allow the TC's to return to it? Now that would call the bluff of the Greek Cypriots wouldn't it. But there is a problem with that - re-establish constitutional order, withdaw Turkish troops, allow refugees to return to their homes etc etc. You just can't see that happening could you. It basically undermines Turkish interests in Cyprus but gives the TC's their rights back. Bit of a conundrum I would say. Will Turkey sacrifice her interets or will she sacrifice the TC interests? I know where I would put my money!

[Saint Jimmy]

The wording of the protocol cannot be changed or ammended to suit a non-member of the EU!

The protocol was signed and agreed by all 25 member states and Turkey has made the commitment to sign it before October.

Okay mikkie, my understanding is that what you say is your opinion and interpretation. This is what I am referring to, and especially the part in bold, which is obviously subject to other interpretations...

Extract from the EU presidency conclusions, 16/17 December 2004:
In this light, it welcomed the declaration of Turkey that "the Turkish Government confirms
that it is ready to sign the Protocol on the adaptation of the Ankara Agreement prior to the
actual start of accession negotiations and after reaching agreement on and finalising the
adaptations which are necessary in view of the current membership of the European Union".

[pantelis]

Dear Insan,
All of the Hellenic groups you have mentioned above are nothing but bunch of self-serving boneless individuals. You should not worry about them.

As far as your comment,

In that case, Tassos together with Greece and some other EU countries; most probably would veto Turkey in October. Thereafter, either Tassos together with Greece and some other EU countries would claim that whole Cyprus is the soil of EU and Turkey should completely withdraw all of her troops, unconditionally or all concerned parties would focus upon an agreed partition...

you know very well that the Turkish "deep state" would welcome a Greek/Cypriot veto on Turkey's accession. They know that as Turkey starts getting with her EU "road map", these privileged groups would start loosing power and support by the Turkish public opinion.

Tassos may be old, but he is not stupid. Neither is Erdogan. A deadlock would be detrimental both. Sudden and radical "moves" would turn the table upside down and the "chess" game would be OVER for all, except the "status quo" supporters. With such a scenario, the common people would lose once again!

You know by now that no GC or G group supports the status quo. On the other hand, there are Turkish and TC groups who not only support the status quo, but believe that the entire island should "return" to Ottoman hands.
Don't you think that it is strange situation, to have on the one hand, the prime ministers of Greece and Turkey celebrating weddings together and on the other hand, the militaries of the two countries provoke each other with war "games".
How many times did the Turkish ruling elite threaten to annex the occupied part of Cyprus and at the same time making attempts for "state" recognition?
One thing is clear to me. The "status quo" group still runs both Turkey and the occupied part of Cyprus. As long as they seat in or behind the negotiating chairs, they would guide the situation in a deadlock, in order to maintain their power and positions. The Annan plan is a classic example. It's outcome was the desirable outcome of the "status quoers" (this is one of your own, “old” words). 76% of the GCs are not in favor of the present situation, nor are the 24% who voted "yes" . Who won in the referenda? The 35% of the TCs who have voted "no" and the Turkish ruling elite, who sad behind them, in the negotiating chairs.

I understand and share your frustration. I have told you this, many times. The solution has to come directly from the common people, yavash yavash, with interaction, communication and cooperation. The politicians cannot do it, without the pressure by, and the fear of the public opinion. The politicians stay in power, at least in the democratic societies, after they won the public opinion, the votes.
The more you try to understand the mentality of the politicians, domestic and foreign, the more you try to analyze what they said and did, the more you become a victim of their game ploys and the more you distance yourself from a viable solution.

Speaking of politicians and votes, the TCs are having elections, again. What is your opinion of these elections. Do you think the status quo supporters will lose? Are they going to be as legitimate as the elections in Iraq?