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[brother]

Kalayc?og<breve>lu: EU can always veto Turkey

Thursday, January 27, 2005


'Developments depend on the degree to which Turkey will be able to solve the Cyprus problem within the framework of the Annan plan and secure the cooperation of Greek Cyprus'


  Part 1

  One of the key issues facing Turkey prior to the beginning of accession talks with the European Union is the problem of Cyprus. Professor Ersin Kalayc?og<breve>lu, rector of Istanbul's Is¸?k University, answered questions from the Turkish Daily News on this issue. Spelling out the problems Turkey will likely face during the process, Kalayc?og<breve>lu stressed that it wasn't possible to foresee the position of Turkey and the EU in 2015, noting that it was always a probability that Turkey's full membership would be vetoed.

  The decision on the Cyprus issue that was made in Brussels on Dec. 17 is a hot issue in Turkey. When asked what the article in the Dec. 17 Brussels summit statement concerning Cyprus meant for the Turks, Kalayc?og<breve>lu pointed out that the decision on the Cyprus issue is included in Paragraph 19. ?This states that the Turkish government agrees to participate in negotiations before Oct, 3, 2005 to extend the protocol of the Ankara Agreement to the 10 new countries being admitted into full membership in the EU and also acquiesces in any arrangement required and further commits itself to signing the protocol regarding the adaptation of the Ankara Agreement. This doesn't mean Turkey will sign the protocol automatically. Turkey states here that it is ready to sign the protocol but would discuss it further. It implies that the signing will take place after an agreement is reached.

   ?Cyprus was widely debated prior to Turkey's being given a date at the Brussels summit. It seems that Turkey secured a result that gives it as much breathing space as possible. That's why I don't think Cyprus is an important issue. But I must say that meetings on the Cyprus issue that will take place between Turkey and the EU up to Oct. 3, 2005 could reach an impasse. The talks may take an unexpected and undesired turn and Turkey may find it difficult to sign the protocol. Therefore, the result depends on the degree to which Turkey will be able to solve the Cyprus problem within the framework of the Annan plan and secure the cooperation of Greek Cyprus. If Turkey manages to solve the problem on the basis of the Annan plan, there won't be any hurdles left to signing the protocol.?

   When asked whether or not Turkey knew that the EU would adopt new policies related to the Cyprus issue when the customs union agreement was signed with the EU, Kalayc?og<breve>lu said: ?Actually, the EU wanted a U.N.-backed peace agreement to be signed on the island so that Cyprus could join the EU as a whole. After the Republic of Cyprus entered the EU, Turkey was pressed to recognize it, but we failed to develop a quick response to this pressure. Turkey is partially responsible for the delay in the agreement. It caused an impasse for the EU, since southern Cyprus, led by an extremely nationalist head of government, joined the EU on behalf of the entire island. And because the south doesn't recognize northern Cyprus, the EU acquis communitaire cannot be applied to the north. That is, it is not clear how it will represent Turkish Cyprus.

   ?If a solution is reached within the framework of the Annan plan, there won't be a problem. Otherwise, Turkey cannot recognize the government of Greek Cyprus as the official representative of the Republic of Cyprus. Turkey has been arguing for years that this is illegal because in that case the status of the Turks living on the island would be completely uncertain. Turkey would forfeit a correct and ethical position. If you push hard enough on all the states that have problems with Turkey, Turkey would give the impression that it has accepted what was asked of it at the expense of contradicting its national interests and its understanding of ethics and politics. It would be a blow that could even derail its steps towards the EU. The EU must understand this.?

  Perhaps in looking back over the whole situation, one should ask exactly what Turkey's position is on the Cyprus issue. According to Kalayc?og<breve>lu, one has to go back to the constitution that was fashioned in 1960 for Cyprus but was not implemented from 1963 onwards. ?Turkey accepts that there exists a government on the island that is unconstitutional because the constitution is not being applied and it believes that Turks living there are not represented. This argument has been recorded by the United Nations and the EU. Tassos Papadopoulos does not represent the Turkish community. The vice president must be a Turk. The chairman of the assembly must be a Turk. Some ministers must be Turkish. The current situation is unconstitutional. Turkey can't approve a government that violates its constitution. This has been Turkey's position since 1963-64.?

  As for a recommendation about the policy that Turkey should adopt over the Cyprus issue, Kalayc?og<breve>lu suggested that Turkey could say that it will encourage the regions where the acquis communitarie is implemented. It may not recognize Cyprus as a state or Papadopoulos as president. That's why the protocol includes such articles and explains what will be done in the future. The thought is that a formula will finally be developed.

  On the other hand, there is the Annan plan and yet another proposal from U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan for a solution to the island's problem. Kalayc?og<breve>lu says: ?Turkey is willing to accept the Annan plan, but the existing Papadopoulos government wants it off the table. We don't know how Greek Cyprus will be made to accept the Annan plan but the United States is the only power to do it. The first clue is out there; it recognized Macedonia. I am not judging that it will also recognize Turkish Cyprus, but there are indications in the press. American aircraft land at Ercan Airport. People get their passports stamped there. This is meant to tell Papadopoulos to reach an agreement as the United States is taking gradual steps to recognize northern Cyprus.

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  Tomorrow Kalayc?og<breve>lu will discuss Turkey's relations with the EU and the negotiation process ? possibilities and difficulties.

[magikthrill]

question: what happened in 1963 (aside from the violence?). how did the constitution stop being implemented?

should i start another thread or does one already exist?

is that too many questions? oops that was another one

[brother]

The gc admin. changed many articles without the tc representatives i.e the vice president etc.

[brother]

  Part II

  One of the main issues is the proposed restriction of free movement throughout the European Union and what this would mean for Turkey. Kalayc?og<breve>lu pointed out that according to some people, ?There are safety valves, and they will be permanent but delegations won't be permanent. As far as I've learned from the EU Secretariat, Sweden has been given such a delegation. For instance, EU regulations on chewing tobacco will not apply in Sweden. The EU will not be able to ban tobacco or prevent its sale nor set standards for it. Another permanent delegation requires that EU citizens cannot buy a second house in Malta unless they live there for at least five years. Poland has a long transition period on selling land to Germans. As far as I remember, there is also a restriction on selling Danish land to Germans.

  ?Turkey cannot accept permanent restrictions on its right to free movement because it would violate one of the EU's four basic freedoms. When you remove a part of the free movement of goods, services, capital and people, how much can the others move freely? This won't be a union and Turkey won't be a part of it. If Turkey, however, is given a right to veto all decisions this may be a consideration. Turkey might accept restrictions on its right of free movement but could claim the right to veto all decisions (such as veto rights given to Cyprus and Malta).

  ?The issue must also be viewed from an economic angle. Will it bring any economic advantage when we don't have the right of free movement? Most Turkish economists say that the customs union with Cyprus cannot be maintained under these circumstances. They agree that a free trade agreement should be signed, such as in Sweden, and the customs union abandoned.?

  Foreign Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Abdullah Gul has been named the top negotiator for the accession talks with the EU. When asked if a top negotiator is really necessary for Turkey to carry out negotiations with the EU, Kalayc?og<breve>lu replied that one is needed. ?He is needed both to conduct negotiations with the EU and to deal with whatever must be carried out within Turkey. It is clear that the negotiator has two roles. EU legislation must be incorporated into Turkish law, but this is not limited only to the preparation of the laws and securing Parliament's vote. The negotiator, at the same time, will need to get people to accept it. Hence, any legal arrangement will have to include the people who will be affected by this arrangement. A person and an institution are needed to coordinate each at the levels of both domestic and foreign politics.

  ?But how will it pursue domestic politics? Let's say legislation is needed in poultry farming. This process will have to engage villagers and institutions involved in poultry farming, and production. The commitment will have to be explained to them, they will have to be informed how they will be affected and what measures they should take, etc. As you can see, it is not enough to maintain foreign relations. You need to make arrangements at home as well. This is the real difficulty. It's not that difficult to write the EU legislation and adapt it to Turkey, but you have to make the people embrace it. ?Enforcing' is not the answer. The people must adopt it so they will feel vested [enough] to fulfill the requirements of these laws. This is true for every sector of society such as services, culture, political parties, etc. For this reason, a ministry in charge of organizing each sector, section and nongovernmental organization is needed.

  Asked whether or not he thought it might be possible that Turkey may not become a full member of the EU in spite of fulfilling all the conditions and the Cyprus problem being settled, Kalayc?og<breve>lu confirmed that the EU could always veto Turkey. ?We potentially face 62 vetoes during the opening and closing of the 31 chapters of the negotiations. Turkey may not like the way things are going and could withdraw, but we must view the negotiations in the following manner: The beginning and continuation of this process shows that Turkey is moving towards a stable and modern economy and a contemporary democracy. Accordingly, it shows that Turkey is evolving within a stable system, operating on the principles of a state of law. This shows that an attractive environment exists for foreign investors.

  ?There is no reason for foreign investors not to take advantage of opportunities in Turkey. There is a big market and a young labor force in Turkey. If educational opportunities can be improved, there is no reason why there shouldn't be massive capital inflow. Currently, uncertainties and resulting economic problems (high interest rates, currency volatility, and periodic economic crises) are handicaps for Turkey. Another handicap is the failure to implement the principles of a state of law. If such handicaps are overcome, foreign capital inflow will surely increase.?

  Pointing out that foreign aid like the $30 million granted to Poland is given to countries that start negotiating with the EU, Kalayc?og<breve>lu stressed that this gives momentum to the economy. If Turkey can earn a 3-5 percent share of the international market, worth trillions of dollars, it can quickly start solving its economic problems, especially unemployment. Such developments will take place during the negotiation process, regardless of whether negotiations are successful or not.

  ?This process will trigger economic, political and legal developments in Turkey. It is not easy to foresee the situation of Turkey, the world and the EU in 2015. But if you look the situation 10 years ago, you can see a positive difference. If economic crises can be avoided and a more stable and stronger economic growth achieved, we will see the economy getting two to three times bigger in 10 years' time. Then maybe the EU won't be as attractive an option. We won't know that in advance.?