Cyprus-Forum.com

[Alexandros Lordos]

Good news, everyone. My survey of Turkish Cypriots has just been completed today, and I am ready to begin analysing the data.

In total 700 Turkish Cypriots were interviewed, in personal interviews which lasted 40 minutes each. So the results are quite detailed ...

I will be posting results from the survey in this thread over the next few days, so please avoid off-topic discussions here.

I also apologise for keeping silent about this over the last few weeks (especially to Turkcyp who asked me directly how the project is going). I didn't want to say anything about this until it was all finished ...

[magikthrill]

And what did this survey entail exactly?

[Alexandros Lordos]

OK, some first results ...

TCs seem willing to consider substantial changes to the Annan Plan, in the areas of Refugee rights (property and residence), the functioning of the economy (more federal control), political functionality of the Federal Government (but not if it means simple majority rule).

TCs, on the other hand, seem unwilling to tolerate a reduction in the number of settlers who will remain (the 45,000 list). However, they are more than eager for the illegal workers who came in during the 90s to leave, and for strong implementation mechanisms to be put in place to ensure their departure.

On the matter of Security, TCs seem unwilling to tolerate a full, or faster, withdrawal of the Turkish army. However, they would be willing to accept a compromise on a European Security Agreement, so long as Turkey also plays a part in it. Furthermore, they are willing to tolerate it if Turkey's intervention right is limited to the TC constituent state only.

Interestingly, most TCs are equally happy with a bicommunal Unitary state arrangement (like the 1960 RoC), as they are with a bizonal-bicommunal Federation - so long as their political equality is safeguarded. A two-state solution is not really very popular if it would mean substantial territorial concessions. Also, they are willing to accept that the new state of affairs should be, explicitly, the legal continuity of the RoC, so long as they are not obliged to also recognise the post-1963 administration.

I'll be posting details over the next few days, but feel free to ask me if you have any particular questions.

[Alexandros Lordos]

And what did this survey entail exactly?

I think my post just above sufficiently answers your question ...

[turkcyp]

Hey Alex,

Before you start putting your results, can you copy and paste teh questionaire first.

We were discussing on this a month ago, and we have given you a think bad/good some ideas. So I just wanted to see the final questionaire that is used.

Take care,

p.s. And about the results that you have wirtten so far. I could have told you those so far. You did not have to go through this painful process. heheheh......

[boulio]

excellent work Dr.LORDOS

[Alexandros Lordos]

Here's the questionnaire:

Questionnaire

“Hello, we are from KADEM . We are conducting a survey about our national case, and would greatly value your views and opinions.


1. How well would you say that you understood the Annan Plan last year?

(Not at all(1), a little(2), moderately well(3), very well(4), no response(99))


2. And how well would you say you remember the Annan Plan now?

(I forgot it totally(1), I remember only the basic issues(2), I remember many details(3), I remember almost everything(4))


3. Now that Turkey got a date for EU Accession talks, there is talk that the Annan Plan will be brought back, with the aim of negotiating it further to achieve mutually acceptable improvements, and bringing it in front of the people for a second referendum. Would you consider such a development positive or negative?

(Positive(1), Negative(2), Neither positive nor negative(3))


4. On the subject of security, the Annan Plan provides for a Treaty of Guarantee, whereby Greece, Turkey and the UK will each have the right to intervene in Cyprus whenever they consider it necessary. Furthermore, the Annan Plan provides for large contingents of Greek and Turkish troops to remain in Cyprus for the first 18 years after the solution, and then small contingents of troops to remain in Cyprus forever afterwards. Having all this in mind, how would you feel about the following possible changes?

(This change is totally unacceptable (1), this change is tolerable if it is necessary (2), this change is a helpful improvement (3), this change is absolutely essential (4), No Response (99))

• Greek and Turkish Intervention rights to be clearly limited, so that Turkey can only intervene in the Turkish Cypriot state and Greece can only intervene in the Greek Cypriot state.(4.1)
• Greece or Turkey to require authorization by the UN Security Council, before either of them can intervene in Cyprus.(4.2)
• The Treaty of Guarantee to be replaced by a European Security agreement, in which Turkey will also play a part, when Turkey joins the European Union. (4.3)
• Cyprus to be fully demilitarized (i.e. all Greek and Turkish troops to depart) when Turkey joins the European Union. (4.4)
• All Greek and Turkish troops to become part of an integrated European Security force, when Turkey joins the European Union. (4.5)
• The bulk of Greek and Turkish troops to leave the island much sooner than currently provided for in the UN Plan. (4.6)
• Stronger implementation mechanisms for the withdrawal of weapons, so that weapons kept in the homes of Greek Cypriots are relinquished and removed from the island. (4.7)
5. Concerning the implementation of the solution, there have been concerns from both sides that, while the Annan Plan might seem good on paper, it will not actually be implemented in the way it is written. Having this in mind, how would you feel about the following possible changes?

(This change is totally unacceptable (1), this change is tolerable if it is necessary (2), this change is a helpful improvement (3), this change is absolutely essential (4), No Response (99))

• Stronger guarantees that the final agreement will form Primary Law within the European Union, in order to ensure that aspects of the solution will not later be overruled through the application of European Law. (5.1)
• Enforceable international guarantees to be given for the implementation of the solution, with serious consequences for the side that breaks away from what has been agreed – whether that side is the Greek or the Turkish. (5.2)


6. Concerning issues of territory and property, the Annan Plan provides for some territories to be returned under Greek Cypriot administration, while for those refugees whose property will remain will under administration of the other side, there is a provision that they can claim back 1/3 of their property and receive the other 2/3 in compensation. Having this in mind, how would you feel about the following possible changes?

(This change is totally unacceptable (1), this change is tolerable if it is necessary (2), this change is a helpful improvement (3), this change is absolutely essential (4), No Response)

• Refugees, both Turkish Cypriot and Greek Cypriot, to be entitled to a greater percent of their property in the other constituent state, than currently provided for in the UN Plan, under the condition that exceptions to protect current occupants will still apply in the same way as in the Annan Plan. (6.1)
• Each refugee that will not receive his original home, to be entitled to have a new home built for them in a vacant plot in the same town or village. (6.2)
• The compensation for those who will not receive their property back to be in cash rather than shares and bonds. (6.3)
• The compensation of Turkish Cypriots who will not get their property back to be paid by the Greek Cypriot state, and the compensation of Greek Cypriots who will not get their property back to be paid by the Turkish Cypriot state. (6.4)
• The right to become a resident of the other constituent state to be given much sooner than currently provided for in the UN Plan, so long as permanent residence limits meant to protect bizonality will still apply. (6.5)


7. Concerning the issue of immigrants from Turkey and elsewhere, the Annan Plan currently allows for 45.000 to remain on the island after a solution, according to a list that will be submitted to the UN before the date of the solution. Having this in mind, how would you feel about the following possible changes?

(This change is totally unacceptable (1), this change is tolerable if it is necessary (2), this change is a helpful improvement (3), this change is absolutely essential (4), No Response (99))

• The list of immigrants that may remain on the island, currently numbering 45.000, to be shortened. (7.1)
• The number of immigrants that may remain on the island, currently 45.000, to be increased. (7.2)
• Strong implementation mechanisms, so that the illegal workers who are not entitled to remain will indeed leave the island. (7.3)
• Stronger incentives and compensation for those who will have to leave Cyprus because of the solution. (7.4)
• Firm limits to the number of immigrants from Turkey who may come to settle in Cyprus after the solution. (7.5)


8. Concerning the Economy of Cyprus after the solution, how would you feel about the following possible changes?

(This change is totally unacceptable (1), this change is tolerable if it is necessary (2), this change is a helpful improvement (3), this change is absolutely essential (4))

• Turkey to continue its current annual contribution to the Turkish Cypriot state for ten more years after the solution, in order to help raise the standard of living of Turkish Cypriots to the same level as Greek Cypriots. (8.1)
• International Donors to finance a greater proportion of the cost of the solution, through grants and low-interest long term loans. (8.2)
• The cost of the Federal Government to be split in such a way between the Greek Cypriot and the Turkish Cypriot side, so that each side pays for its own people employed in the Federal Government. (8.3)
• The Federal Government to have the authority to place limits in the public borrowing of constituent states. (8.4)
• Greater incentives for the creation of bi-communal joint business ventures in the north, in order to increase the standard of living of Turkish Cypriots through Greek Cypriot investments. (8.5)
• The right to buy property in the other constituent state to be given within 6 to 9 years, rather than within 15 years, but with a permanent limit to guarantee that Turkish Cypriots will always own the majority of property in the north. (8.6)

9. Concerning Educational and Social matters, how would you feel about the following possible changes?

(This change is totally unacceptable (1), this change is tolerable if it is necessary (2), this change is a helpful improvement (3), this change is absolutely essential (4), No Response (99))

• The education of Greek Cypriots living in the north and Turkish Cypriots living in the south to be the responsibility of the Federal Government. This is a measure to preserve cultural identity. (9.1)
• The Federal Government to operate bi-communal schools, for parents who may voluntarily opt to send their children there. (9.2)
• Free instruction of English and Greek to be made available for all citizens of the Turkish Cypriot state, in order to improve their employment prospects. (9.3)
• All monuments that relate to events of inter-communal violence from 1963 until the present day, to be removed from the island and replaced with monuments which carry a message of reconciliation. (9.4)



10. Concerning the Federal Government, the Annan Plan provides for a Senate, a House of Deputies, a Presidential Council, and a Supreme Court. In the Senate and Presidential Council, the Turkish Cypriots will have the right to block any decision they do not like, and if the matter is important then the Supreme Court will step in and make the decision. Having all this in mind, how would you feel about the following changes?

(This change is totally unacceptable (1), this change is tolerable if it is necessary (2), this change is a helpful improvement (3), this change is absolutely essential (4), No Response (99))

• The three international judges in the Supreme Court to come from EU countries, so that their rulings help to lead Cyprus into a more European direction. (10.1)
• The Supreme Court to be required to adjudicate within a very short period of time, in case of deadlock in the Federal Government, in order to ensure that the government continues to function smoothly and without delays. (10.2)
• Senate special majority - 40% of Turkish Cypriot senators to also agree for a decision - to only apply in the most essential matters, and the list of these matters to be agreed in advance of the solution. The purpose of this amendment would be to avoid deadlocks in Federal Decision Making. In all other issues, the requirement that 25% of Turkish Cypriot Senators must agree with each decision, to still apply. (10.3)
• Provisions to be put in place, such that will encourage the development of bi-communal Political Parties. (10.4)
• The Presidential Council to be elected directly by the people – Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot – rather than it being appointed by the Senate. (10.5)
• The new state to be the legal successor of the 1960 Republic of Cyprus, with all the international privileges and memberships that the Republic of Cyprus had, but without the requirement to recognize the post-1963 Greek Cypriot administration. (10.6)

11. On the issue of Bizonality, where do you stand? (select only one response)

1. Strict bizonality – All Greek Cypriots to live in the south and all Turkish Cypriots to live in the north. (1)
2. Moderated bizonality – Greek Cypriots to be welcome in the north but only up to a maximum of 20% of the total population. (2)
3. Flexible bizonality – Greek Cypriots to be welcome in the north, up to a maximum of 33% of the total population. (3)
4. Temporary bizonality – The right of Greek Cypriots to reside in the north to be limited for 15 – 20 years, after which time everyone will be free to live wherever they wish in Cyprus. (4)
5. No bizonality – Turkish Cypriots and Greek Cypriots to be free to live anywhere in Cyprus, from very soon after the solution, without any limitations. (5)


12. On the issue of the Federal Government, it is generally understood that the need for political equality and the need for smooth governance may often conflict. In the dilemma below, what would you personally choose? (select only one response)


1. The Turkish Cypriots should have the ability to block every decision in the Federal Government, if they so wish. In this case, Turkish Cypriot rights might be protected to the fullest possible extent, but there is a danger that the Federal Government will fall into deadlocks and not function properly. (1)

OR

2. The Turkish Cypriots should only have the ability to block those decisions of the Federal Government that are vital to their interests. In this case, the Federal Government will not fall into deadlocks and will therefore function more effectively for the benefit of both communities, but the price to pay for this may be that Turkish Cypriots will on occasion have to tolerate a decision on a secondary matter, that they disagree with. (2)


13. From studies done amongst Greek Cypriots, we know that the following issues are very important to them, and their decision to vote “Yes” or “No” to a new Plan might be decided by these issues. Having this in mind, would you be willing to tolerate the following amendments to the Plan for the sake of reaching a solution?

(I would tolerate it (1), I would not tolerate it (2), I am not sure (3) )

• A large reduction in the number of immigrants from Turkey that may remain on the island after the solution. (13.1)
• A much larger proportion of each refugee’s property to be returned to its original owners. (13.2)
• Most of the army from Turkey to leave Cyprus very soon after the solution, and no troops to remain after Turkey joins the EU. (13.3)
• A change in the finances of the new state, so that Turkey, rather than the Greek Cypriots, will be responsible to raise the standard of living of the Turkish Cypriots. (13.4)


14. To what extent do you trust each of the following politicians, to correctly evaluate an offered solution of the Cyprus Problem?

(Not at all (1), A little (2), Substantially (3), No Response (99))

• Raouf Denktash (14.1)
• Mehmet Ali Talat (14.2)
• Serdar Denktash (14.3)
• Mustafa Akkintzi (14.4)
• Dervish Eroglu (14.5)
• Rejep Tayip Erdogan (14.6)
• Deniz Baykal (14.7)
• Devlet Bahceli (14.


15. To what extent do you generally trust each of the following groups within the Turkish Cypriot community?

(Not at all (1), A little (2), Substantially (3), No Response (99))

• The Army (15.1)
• The Politicians (15.2)
• The Businessmen (15.3)
• The Academics (15.4)
• The NGOs (15.5)
• The Bi-communal Activists. (15.6)


16. How do you feel about the current developments in our national case?

(select as many as apply)

• Fear (16.1)
• Hope (16.2)
• Despair (16.3)
• Confidence (16.4)
• Bitterness (16.5)
• Anger (16.6)
• Indifference (16.7)


17. If you were able to bring about a solution of the Cyprus Problem the way you desire it, how would you evaluate each of the following options?

(For each one a scale from 0 – Totally unacceptable to 10 – Ideal Solution)

• A Two-State Solution, following mutual recognition of the two administrations and the return of some territories to the Greek Cypriots. (17.1)
• A Bizonal – Bicommunal Federation, with two autonomous constituent states and a federal government to oversee issues of joint concern. (17.2)
• A Unitary State, with a unified central administration and free residence anywhere on the island, but with special safeguards to protect the political equality and cultural rights of each of the two communities. (17.3)
• Double Union, with the Turkish Cypriot region becoming a part of Turkey and the Greek Cypriot region becoming a part of Greece. (17.4)


18. How important is each of the following for you, as a motive for solving the Cyprus Problem?

(Not at all a motive (1), a secondary consideration (2), a primary motive (3))

• Putting an end to economic isolation. (18.1)
• Being re-united with the Greek Cypriots. (18.2)
• Being able to return to ancestral homes that are now under Greek Cypriot administration. (18.3)
• Being the masters of our own house. (18.4)
• Becoming members of the European Union. (18.5)
• Overcoming the risk of another war. (18.6)


19. Can you imagine yourself:

(Yes (1)/No (2) for each)

• Having Greek Cypriots as friends? (19.1)
• Having Greek Cypriots as work colleagues? (19.2)
• Having Greek Cypriots as neighbours? (19.3)
• Sending your children to the same school as Greek Cypriots? (19.4)
• Accepting a Greek Cypriot in your family through marriage? (19.5)
• Working, or setting up a business, in the Greek-Cypriot administered south of the island, after a solution? (19.6)
• Living in the south of the island after a solution, under Greek Cypriot administration? (19.7)


20. Would you say that you currently have – or at least have had in the past - Greek Cypriot friends? (Yes (1)/No (2))


21. To what extent do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements?

(Totally Disagree (1), Partly Disagree (2), Neither Agree nor Disagree (3), Partly Agree (4), Totally Agree (5))

• Greek Cypriots are our brothers. (21.1)
• Greek Cypriots are our co-citizens. (21.2)
• Greek Cypriots will attempt to dominate us. (21.3)
• Greek Cypriots are murderers. (21.4)
• The Turkish Army is here to protect us. (21.5)
• I am happy for Turkey to guide our policies. (21.6)
• My life is guided by the precepts of Islam. (21.7)
• The only way to resolve our national case is through an armed struggle. (21.
• Above all we should strive for the recognition of the TRNC. (21.9)


D1. How do you consider yourself? (select one)

1. A Cypriot (1)
2. A Turk (2)
3. A Cypriot Turk (3)
4. A Turkish Cypriot (4)


D2. 1) Do you speak English?

(Not at all (1), a little (2), quite well (3))

.2) Do you speak Greek?

(Not at all (1), a little (2), quite well (3))


D3. 1) Would you like to speak English?

(No (1), Yes (2), I don’t know (3)

.2) Would you like to speak Greek?

(No (1), Yes (2), I don’t know (3)


D4. How long has your family been resident in Cyprus? (select one)

1. We have been here since before 1974 (1)
2. We came here between 1974 and 1979 (2)
3. We came here between 1980 and 1989 (3)
4. We came here between 1990 and 1999 (4)
5. We came here after the year 2000 (5)
6. My family has mixed through marriage – some of us have been here since before 1974, while others came later. (6)
7. No Response (7)

D5. Were your parents born in Cyprus?

(Yes (1), No (2))


D6. If you or your family has been in Cyprus since before 1974, are you: (select one)

1. Original residents of northern Cyprus? (1)
2. Refugees from the Greek-administered south? (2)



D7. What did you vote in last April’s referendum?

(Yes (1), No (2))


D8. And what would you vote today, if the Annan Plan was brought back for a referendum without any changes?

(Yes (1), No (2))


D9. What did you vote in the parliamentary elections of 2003?

(The various parties that were on the ballot, Didn’t vote, Won’t Say)


D10. And what do you intend to vote in the parliamentary elections this February?

(The various parties that will be on the ballot, Don’t know, Won’t Say)

D11. What is your age group?

1. 18-24 (1)
2. 25-34 (2)
3. 35-44 (3)
4. 45-54 (4)
5. 55 + (5)

D12. What is your gender?

1. Male (1)
2. Female (2)

[insan]

TCs seem willing to consider substantial changes to the Annan Plan, in the areas of Refugee rights (property and residence), the functioning of the economy (more federal control), political functionality of the Federal Government (but not if it means simple majority rule).

Good, just how I expected and wished.

TCs, on the other hand, seem unwilling to tolerate a reduction in the number of settlers who will remain (the 45,000 list). However, they are more than eager for the illegal workers who came in during the 90s to leave, and for strong implementation mechanisms to be put in place to ensure their departure.

Good, how I expected and wished. But this gave me the impression that none of the settlers who came in 90s were given TRNC citizenship.

On the matter of Security, TCs seem unwilling to tolerate a full, or faster, withdrawal of the Turkish army. However, they would be willing to accept a compromise on a European Security Agreement, so long as Turkey also plays a part in it. Furthermore, they are willing to tolerate it if Turkey's intervention right is limited to the TC constituent state only.

Good, just how I expected and wished.

Interestingly, most TCs are equally happy with a bicommunal Unitary state arrangement (like the 1960 RoC), as they are with a bizonal-bicommunal Federation - so long as their political equality is safeguarded. A two-state solution is not really very popular if it would mean substantial territorial concessions. Also, they are willing to accept that the new state of affairs should be, explicitly, the legal continuity of the RoC, so long as they are not obliged to also recognise the post-1963 administration.

Good, just how I expected and wished.


Thanks for the great work re Alexandros!


Anyone has an idea how the GC ruling elite would evaluate and interpret the opinions of TCs? May the TC perspective be acceptable for them?

[Alexandros Lordos]

And about the results that you have wirtten so far. I could have told you those so far. You did not have to go through this painful process. heheheh......

SO WHY DIDN'T YOU SPEAK OUT MAN?

[turkcyp]

And about the results that you have wirtten so far. I could have told you those so far. You did not have to go through this painful process. heheheh......

SO WHY DIDN'T YOU SPEAK OUT MAN?

I did....

But it comes much more credible when it comes out of a survey. Good job.