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[magikthrill]

And I wonder which factors did influence almost half of this zealots to vote yes to the Annan Plan. Perhaps the influence of settler association leader nuri Cevikel... Or promises of CTP? Perhaps both...

Or perhaps they were smart enough to realize that the Annan Plan did indeed take away many rights from GCs.

As far as the religious issue, I think the reason why this gorup

Also, I am not sure how importatnt or accurate this may be, but there is a large student population in northern Cyprus that comes from Islamic countries that have a much stronger anti-west sentiment and this could be breeding the rise of Islamisist feelings in the general TC population.

mikkie,

I would think that students (ie educated people) would cause the opposite to occur.However, that is my thought .

[Alexandros Lordos]

Mehmet, Insan,

firstly, I retract the adjective "fundamentalist" - this is obviously not appropriate in our context. What worried me however, is the strong correlation between "My life is guided by Islam" and "I believe we should resolve our national case through an armed struggle" that was apparent in this group. (and of course the additional correlation with "Greek Cypriots are murderers" - i.e. enemies - did not ease my worry)

As to the particular interpetation of this correlation, I am open to hear your suggestions ...

My opinion (and ofcourse I am far less qualified than either of you to pronounce on this) is that what we have here is a "Turkish version" of radical Islam - mixed in with nationalist elements of the extreme right, but with the "politically intolerable" aspects of radical Islam, like Sharia law, edited out ... I think this group is probably composed of the same sort of people who were harassing the Orthodox Patriarch at Istanbul two weeks ago ...

[mehmet]

Alexandros,

I would say that both group C and D are nationalists. The difference seems to be taht those in group C interpret that the (Turkish Cypriot) national interest is served by being prepared to compromise on some issues with the Greek Cypriot community. I would say they have a more pragmatic approach. Group D on the other hand are nationalist to the extent that any compromise is betrayal of history. They are the ones in our community who will see traitors everywhere and who may fight to defend their interests.

Sometimes the fear of this group is not reflected by reality. I seem to remember that the white South Africans were going to fight to the death also when aparthied looked like it was finished. Instead they became very marginalised within their own society. Such attitudes about armed struggle will always be seen as attractive by some who have a fear about changes to the political status quo. The point is tht if the Turksih goverment is for a solution these people will get little outside support and will be seen for what they are, criminals. And so far, Erdogan has managed to carry the Generals with him so I choose to be optimistic for the future on this issue.

[Alexandros Lordos]

Insan,

here is some the basic profiling for Group D:

- 40% of settlers who came in the 80s and 90s are in this group, whereas of settlers who came in the 70s only 20% (i.e. near population average) are in this group.

- Moderate income, moderate education.

- All age groups, both genders.

- Mostly resident in Lefkosa, Girne and Famagusta.

- 65% of this group are Turkish Cypriots, 35% are settlers.

- In terms of institutions and politicians, they mostly trust the Army, Eroglu, Denktash father and son, and also Bahceli from Turkey. No particular correlation with Erdogan or Baykal. They distrust businessmen, NGOs, bicommunal activists and academics. They distrust Talat and Akinci.

- Their beliefs are: My life is guided by Islam (totally agree), The only way to resolve our national case is through an armed struggle (partly agree), I am happy for Turkey to guide our policies (totally agree), Greek Cypriots are our co-citizens (neither agree nor disagree), The Turkish Army is here to protect us (totally agree), Greek Cypriots are murderers (partly to totally agree), Greek Cypriots will attempt to dominate us (partly to totally agree), Greek Cypriots are our brothers (totally disagree).

- They are 24% of the overall population.

I hope this helps ...

[Alexandros Lordos]

I would say that both group C and D are nationalists.

Could we say perhaps that Group C people are "progressive nationalists", whereas Group D people are "rigidly conservative nationalists"? Or, more simply Group C - "moderate right wing" and Group D - "extreme right wing"? But still, I have a hunch that there is also something else going on here ...

Mehmet, as to your thought that after a solution these people will just "sit in a corner and grovel" ,well, I hope you are right ... but it is my view that we should consider and plan for the worst: If there is an element of radical Islam proliferating in this group, we must be aware of it because such things do not dissipate easily, certainly nowhere near as easily as "common right-wing extremism" ...

I remember the first time I crossed over to the north two years ago. I got into a Taxi, we got talking with the driver (a settler) and he said he had studied ... theology in Saudi Arabia. I could tell that the man was of radical convictions from his composure, I didn't need to see him roll out his prayer carpet before I could form an opinion about this ...

Think about it: Radical Islam is on the rise everywhere in the world. Former "relaxed muslims" are becoming "radicalised muslims". Why should we in Cyprus be an exception?

[insan]

Mehmet, Insan,

firstly, I retract the adjective "fundamentalist" - this is obviously not appropriate in our context. What worried me however, is the strong correlation between "My life is guided by Islam" and "I believe we should resolve our national case through an armed struggle" that was apparent in this group. (and of course the additional correlation with "Greek Cypriots are murderers" - i.e. enemies - did not ease my worry)

Well. Now the question is in what degree their lives guided by Islam.

Low? Moderate? or extreme?

And the second question is under which circumstances they believe that they should resolve their national case through an armed struggle?

Presumably; their answer to the first question would be arranged in order from low to extreme. Why? Because until now, neither an Islamist group movement/crime nor an Islamist individual crime have been heard/observed in the North. Furthermore, an extreme Islamist cannot be a nationalist because according to extreme Islamists' apprehension there are only who believe in Allah and who don't.

Regarding to the second question, I'm sure all of them would agree upon that any solution which does not meet the criterions of Denktash's solution thesis would stimulate them to armed struggle to undermine the united Cyprus.

Now I'm going a bit off topic:

What about the extremists, moderates and humanists of South? What would they do in case of a unification which has not satisfied them?

I think we need to create a new thread to discuss this issue.

[mehmet]

I'll tell you why we are an exception. The Turkish people adopted Islam after coming into contact with the Arabs. Thereore Islam's roots are in the middle east. The Ottoman's through their military and political skills assumed leadership of the Islamic world but interpreted it differently. For example if the Sultan was from an Arabic background could you imagine the Greeks and Armenians (as Christians) having such an important role within the Empire? In other words the Empire was a deviation of Islamic practice.

When you come to the 20th centure and the end of the Empire it was replaced by Ataturk who saw Islam as a negative influence on the future prosperity of Turkey. Gradually through his actions he weakened the role of religion in the state. This had to be done gradually because the majority of Turks were socially conservative and traditional in their outlook. Ataturk's attitude towards religion is still an important factor in how the state of Turkey is today.

Now I am not saying that there are not Turks who have been attracted by fundamentalist beliefs but the prospect if it being something to worry about in the future is remote. Especially in Cyprus where the Turkish Cypriots embrace Ataturks reforms even more enthusiastically than in Turkey itself.

I wouldn't say moderate or extreme right wing is the best way of separating the two groups. I would say pragmatic and dogmatic were better descriptions personally.

[insan]

I wouldn't say moderate or extreme right wing is the best way of separating the two groups. I would say pragmatic and dogmatic were better descriptions personally.

That's it, mehmet I totally agree with you at this point.

[Alexandros Lordos]

I wouldn't say moderate or extreme right wing is the best way of separating the two groups. I would say pragmatic and dogmatic were better descriptions personally.

OK, so you would say that the high correlation with Islam is because members of that group are dogmatic, and the precepts of Islam is one amongst the set of dogmas they keep? I can accept this (though I would have expected demographic correlations with age and gender, because dogmaticism is an age-and-gender related psychological characteristic, but never mind).

So what is the "full dogma" that these people (ie Group D) keep? How would you list it? What do they love and what do they hate? And how can we make sure, or at least what protective measures can we take, so that they will be harmless after a solution? What are their needs? Do they have their own neighborhoods, and prefer to be left alone there? Sorry to bombard you with all these questions ...

By the way, let me say here that I am really grateful to you people for your insight ... you are really helping me very much with the interpretation of the survey, I couldn't have done it without you!

[insan]

So what is the "full dogma" that these people (ie Group D) keep? How would you list it? What do they love and what do they hate? And how can we make sure, or at least what protective measures can we take, so that they will be harmless after a solution? What are their needs? Do they have their own neighborhoods, and prefer to be left alone there? Sorry to bombard you with all these questions ...

If we have taken into consideration that the major concerned parties are GCs,TCs,Greeks and Turks, religious factors of Turkish side even there has been a group of people with a degree of dogmatic mentality among them; wouldn't constitute a serious threat against GCs and Greeks or other non-muslims which are citizens/residents of Cyprus. In the past, dogmatic religious factors had a considerable influence upon both politics and social life of the Greeks and GCs. I have no idea in what degree this has been changed in GCs life.

If we handle the issue retrospectively, religious factors have never been the nucleus and motivate power of the traditional Turkish/TC stance towards Greeks and GCs.

There's only some cases that GCs should worry about:

1- If the agreed solution plan hasn't been satisfactory to Denktashes and their supporters, there's no doubt that they and their mainland backers would do everything they are able to do in order to undermine the relations of two communities.

2- If agreed solution plan hasn't been satisfactory to Tassos, Matsakis, Kutsou, Omiou and their supporters there's no doubt that they and their mainland backers would do everything they are able to do in order to undermine the relations of two communities.

Actually these are the cases that TCs also should worry about it.

I think we should focus upon this issue in another thread.

But if still there are things you wonder about TCs, related with your survey feel free to ask, Alexandros.