Cyprus-Forum.com

[GAVCARoCOM]

Rejecting Kofi: Long Term Consequences in Cyprus

by John Tirman

The predictable rejection of the Annan Plan in Greek Cyprus, and the less predictable but somewhat encouraging endorsement of it in the north, now must be reckoned with: There will be consequences in keeping the island divided, and doing so at the same time that Cyprus entered the European Union and Turkey's own aspirations for membership are about to reach another crucial test in late 2004. The consequences might very well include a new kind of Cyprus one day, perhaps two decades hence, shaped not by negotiation and reconciliation, but by the harsh momentum of globalization and the Europeanization of the Levant.

In declining the Annan Plan, the government of the Republic of Cyprus in effect declined to acknowledge the looming reality of Turkey's EU membership. During the negotiations, Greek Cypriot leaders insisted on a kind of open borders policy that united Europe has fashioned---one cannot dispute that this is a desirable ideal if the EU is a meaningful concept. The "derogations" from this principle of free movement of people within the EU were being sought by the Turkish side, who sought some assurances that Cyprus would not one day be overwhelmed by the superior numbers and capital of Greek Cypriots seeking their old properties or simply populating the attractive coastline of the north, which, among other attractions, is far less garishly developed than the south. Thus the fundament of the EU experiment---open borders and common citizenship---were upheld by the Greek Cypriot side and proved to be one of the main points of contention in the debate over the Annan/DeSoto design.

Now, look forward to 15-20 years from now. Turkey is about to enter the EU.(Both Greece and Greek Cyprus have said they will not veto Turkey's ascension, mind you, though the proof of that is yet to come, and there's still Germany and France for Ankara to deal with.) Among the impacts of Turkey's need to conform with European economic standards is the disemployment of 12-15 million agrarian workers. Where they will go and what they will do is the crucial question on Turkey's European path. But one thing is almost a certainty: many will go to Cyprus. A million or so could easily be lured to a prosperous Cyprus, which needs cheap foreign labor anyway, now imports nannies and maids from Sri Lanka, the Philippines, and other non-African places, and would surely be a destination of choice for the poor of Anatolia just a few miles away.

By 2035 or so, Cyprus would be a Turkish island in all but name. Citizenship could not be denied these Turks, and soon they would dominate politically. The exodus of wealthy Greek Cypriots to the Greek mainland would quicken as their fate became clear---living in Turkish Cyprus, not the TRNC of the north, but the Republic of Cyprus, in a united Cyprus, in a European Cyprus, in which they might comprise 30-40 percent of the population, speak a minority language, be taught by Turkish teachers and policed by Turkish gendarmes, and all the other imagined or real indignities that are often visited upon minority populations the world over.

Had the Greek Cypriot leadership struck a deal on this 20-30 year problem early in 2004 as part of the Annan-sponsored talks, when their negotiating power was at its height, this spectre---the final and absolute end of Greek Cyprus---might have been averted. There still may be ways it is averted or (at best) attenuated through many years to come of plaintive insistence. But the time to get it right was 2004. And that opportunity, unless they revert to the veto, is probably lost as well for good.

[Jerry]

What a load of crap. These Anatolian peasants may have the right to move to Cyprus one day, even if they could afford to buy a house in the ROC (unlikely), do you honestly think GCs would willingly en masse sell them property.

[EUropean666]

peak a minority language, be taught by Turkish teachers and policed by Turkish gendarmes!!

lol

does it include also the turkish f-type jail, torturing people, killing editors, promoting islamic terrorism and etc?

Tiriman till now had moderate view, what happened to him? probably he doesnt know that sarkozy is going to be elected

[Piratis]

Thats a bunch of crap. I didn't even bother reading it until the end.

Turkey is about to enter the EU

Thats the biggest joke ever. What you say about Cyprus, is what most EU countries are afraid off: being footed with Turks. Do you think the Europeans are so stupid to allow that?

Turkey might one day partially join EU (if it meets several conditions) but it will not be a full member and that has become clear by the stance of the 2 biggest EU countries, France and Germany.

[GAVCARoCOM]

Thats a bunch of crap. I didn't even bother reading it until the end.

Turkey is about to enter the EU

Thats the biggest joke ever. What you say about Cyprus, is what most EU countries are afraid off: being footed with Turks. Do you think the Europeans are so stupid to allow that?
Turkey might one day partially join EU (if it meets several conditions) but it will not be a full member and that has become clear by the stance of the 2 biggest EU countries, France and Germany.

They allow this happen with Poland. Now in UK they are staring to write the road signs in POLISH as well

[Piratis]

I meant to say "floated" above.

[askimwos]

Thats a bunch of crap. I didn't even bother reading it until the end.

Turkey is about to enter the EU

Thats the biggest joke ever. What you say about Cyprus, is what most EU countries are afraid off: being footed with Turks. Do you think the Europeans are so stupid to allow that?
Turkey might one day partially join EU (if it meets several conditions) but it will not be a full member and that has become clear by the stance of the 2 biggest EU countries, France and Germany.

They allow this happen with Poland. Now in UK they are staring to write the road signs in POLISH as well

Sorry to say it CarGav but there is a lot of bullshiting going on in this forum and I am afraid you just contributed to this. The British writing road signs in polish? Why didn't they do that with Indian, Pakistani etc where the population is much much bigger.
As I said in another thread, every dveloped economy can take a limited number of economic immigrants. When the labour market in an economy offers a big supply of jobs then people from foreign countries are attracted. Once the demand for workers is satisfied then wages go down and cannot sustain the cost of living for any new immigrant. The same happens with the RoC which is an open market. Why do you think the RoC has not been flooded with Bulgarian or Romanian workers? Because the demand for those unskilled workers is relatively low nowadays and for them there are much more attractive destinations. This is unlike the "trnc" where the illeagal settlers were attracted by the handing of GC properties by the regime in the north. The fact remains that TC are a mnority in the occupied areas and this is very worrying, and if I was a TC I would be dead worried about the situation.

[GAVCARoCOM]

But i beleive if annan plan accepted and solition done by now all, of us will return to our country .

[askimwos]

But i beleive if annan plan accepted and solition done by now all, of us will return to our country .

I know that many people were disappointed by the outcome of the Annan plan CarGav and you are obviously one of them. I my self wished that GC people could say yes to the plan but unfortunately they couldn't because of the form that the final plan took.

We have said a lot in this forum so far and a number of GC people, including myself have explained more or less why the plan was viewed as unbalanced and why it was rejected. I am sure that if you look at these posts once again you will understand that GCs don't really want to take away any rights from TCs. (of course there may be exemprions)

You seem to be a nice guy that wants to learn more and is enjoying the time on the forum, speaking with both GC and Tcs and challenge and be challenged. I say to you don't get disappointed and don't get upset with what people may say sometimes. Always have in mind that on the opposite side there are people like you and me and not monsters. The real objective now is to work together and try to make those changes to the plan that will allow both communities to vote Yes the next time.

[GAVCARoCOM]

Thanks for your coments ,
But Papadopoulus has to meet with Talat that they can change what GCs want to be changed . But asmuchas i can see noone making any effort to push him to go to meet Talat